Blogs - dario perkins

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.



Global Fractures: Big bond crash

Global Fractures: Big bond crash

27 Nov 2019 - Dario Perkins
  • History offers clues about how today’s secular stagnation might end
  • Most benign outcome involves tech diffusion or... income redistribution
  • This Daily Note is the fourth of seven in our “Global Fractures” series
#Dario Perkins #Global Fractures #Globalization #Jobs #Populism #Productivity

Equities vs Bonds

Equities vs Bonds

20 Jun 2019 - Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities. 

#Bond Markets #Dario Perkins #Equities #Interest rates #Recession #Stocks #US Inversion #Yield curve

Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

#Dario Perkins #Fed #Recession watch #US

Why the US yield curve is special

Why the US yield curve is special

20 Aug 2018 - Dario Perkins

The continued flattening in the US yield curve remains a source of background anxiety for investors. If the curve continues to flatten – we are warned – it must eventually invert. And if it inverts soon, there will be a recession in 2019.

...
#Dario Perkins #Recession #US #Yield Curve

The Dull 2018 Consensus

The Dull 2018 Consensus

12 Feb 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Equity markets are arguably getting a little frothy short term & some sort of consolidation would be healthy, but we re-iterate that we are not yet in a full scale bubble; although ultimately before the music stops we expect to have fully experienced on...

#Bubble #Central Banks #Dario Perkins #Equity Markets #Inflation #Yield curve

Eurodollar Dangers

Eurodollar Dangers

25 Jan 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Following on from our long standing above consensus optimism about both the sustainability of the synchronised global growth cycle & markets more generally, my colleague Dario Perkins considers below the risks to this rosy scenario of higher real yields...

#Bubble #Dario Perkins #Economic cycle #Financial markets #FOMC #Global growth #Liquidity crisis #Market Liquidity #Quantitative tightening #Real yields #USD

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