Blogs - china

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China’s past its low point

China’s past its low point

10 Jun 2019 - Charles Dumas

Charles Dumas and Rory Green assess the decline in trade volumes. They support a long-running theme, specifically that trade war is shifting supply chains and accelerating the world splitting into trade blocs.

#ASEAN #Charles Dumas #China #Rory green #Tariffs #Trade #Trade War

Trade and tech risks still not priced in

Trade and tech risks still not priced in

28 May 2019 - Jon Harrison

In his lead article from EM Watch of 28 May, Jon Harrison argues that neither trade nor tech risk are still correctly priced in despite the chaos of the US-China trade negotiations.

#China #EM Watch #Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #PMI #Tariff #Tech #Trade War #US Technology #Xi Jinping

China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

17 Apr 2019 - Rory Green

Chinese Q1 GDP was the weakest in decades on the offical reading. The TS Lombard recalculation shows it to be even weaker at 5.2% yoy. Rory Green writes:

#China #Exports #GDP #Import #Rory Green #Trade War

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

27 Mar 2019 - Jon Harrison

EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations.

#China #Emerging Markets #Equities #Eurozone #Jon Harrison #QT #Stocks #Tariff #Trade

Global tech breakup

Global tech breakup

20 Feb 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA.

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Tech

Trade war: Patchwork solution

Trade war: Patchwork solution

30 Jan 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott.  Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Huawei #Trade War

Anti-Chinese Walls

Anti-Chinese Walls

30 Nov 2018 - Constantine Fraser
  • Mercantilism and geopolitics mean Europe is getting tough on Chinese FDI
  • New EU legislation looks weak on the tin, but will have more far reaching effects
  • In the realm of direct investment, regionalisation is getting underway
#China #Chinese FDI #Constantine Fraser #EU Legislation #Europe

Rocket Man risk to resurface

Rocket Man risk to resurface

14 Nov 2018 - Rory Green
  • The Singapore summit agreement is unravelling
  • For China, the trade war and North Korea are linked
  • Rifts in the South Korea-US alliance are emerging
#China #North Korea #Rory Green #South Korea #Trade War

Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

09 Nov 2018 - Bo Zhuang
  • Beijing is not simply repeating an old-style credit easing to prop up the economy
  • The positive spill-over effect of China stimulus on the global economy will be offset by further yuan devaluation 
  • Growth will decelerate further until a stronger policy response in H1/19
#Bo Zhuang #China #credit #Global growth #PMI #Yuan

Oil takes the world off the boil

Oil takes the world off the boil

11 Oct 2018 - Charles Dumas
  • September's $25-$30/barrel YoY addition to oil prices costs 1% of world GDP
  • Non-oil EMs, EA, Japan and Korea worst hit - significant demand slowdown
  • US, China less affected - shale frackers and other producers to boom in 2019
#China #EA #Emerging Markets #Japan #Korea #Oil #Oil price #US

Tyranny of the Benchmark

Tyranny of the Benchmark

11 Oct 2018 - Oliver Brennan
  • Market surveys on trade wars indicates escalation is expected
  • But asset markets remain largely undisturbed
  • This is the nature of a continuous market attempting to discount a bimodal event; asset prices could still undergo a sudden shift
#China #FOMC #MARKETS #Oliver Brennan #Trade #Trade War #TRUMP #USD

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

21 Sep 2018 - Lawrence Brainard

Larry Brainard looks beyond the relentless march of President Trump’s escalating trade war. He explains why market forces will reshape world trade. The world will fracture into distinct trading blocs. The pattern is already beginning to take shape.

#China #Globalization #Manufacturing #Trade #Trade War #Trump

Trade War: More escalation ahead

Trade War: More escalation ahead

18 Sep 2018 - Jonathan Fenby & Bo Zhuang
  • Trade confrontation has intensified. We expect US tariffs vs. China to rise to 25% 
  • China unlikely to offer concessions
  • We maintain our 15% yuan devaluation call

We warned our clients that the US-Sino tra...

#China #Tariffs #Trade War #US

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

05 Sep 2018 - Jon Harrison
  • Argentina, Turkey could be manageable, Brazil less so, China not at all
  • EM crises, tighter liquidity and Trade War lead to correlated markets
  • Negative feedback to DM will be via trade and China 

We mainta...

#Argentina #Brazil #China #Emerging Markets #Liquidity #Trade #Trade War #Turkey

Trade war morphing into FX war

Trade war morphing into FX war

07 Aug 2018 - Charles Dumas

As the trade war situation has now escalated we now see this as a key political shock. We expect China to retaliate vigorously to any fresh US import tariffs and see the likely battle ground as Foreign Exchange. China’s probable response would be to s...

#Charles Dumas #China #FX #Tariffs #Trade war #US

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

11 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Our latest thoughts from my colleague Larry Brainard re the EM recent washout. Recent EM market weakness is not a broader retrenchment in EM assets, but risks of contagion from the Argentine and Turkish crises are growing; ​US-China trade conflicts a...

#Argentina #Emerging Markets #Turkey #US China Trade

Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

11 May 2018 - Martin Shenfield

As President Trump’s trade delegation returns from Beijing from preliminary discussions, we question how and when the US and China will be able to resolve their trade and economic disputes. Given not only the gulf that lies between the ultimate object...

#Donald Trump #Made in China 2025 #Protectionism #Trade War #US China Trade

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