Blogs - china

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Global tech breakup

Global tech breakup

20 Feb 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA. Eleanor Olcott has gone into the detail and explains why ...

China China Eleanor Olcott Tech


Trade war: Patchwork solution

Trade war: Patchwork solution

30 Jan 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott.  Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.

China’s Vice Premier, Liu He is in Washington for trade t...

China Eleanor Olcott Huawei Trade War


Anti-Chinese Walls

Anti-Chinese Walls

30 Nov 2018 - Constantine Fraser
  • Mercantilism and geopolitics mean Europe is getting tough on Chinese FDI
  • New EU legislation looks weak on the tin, but will have more far reaching effects
  • In the realm of direct investment, regionalisation is getting underway

    China Chinese FDI Constantine Fraser EU Legislation Europe

Rocket Man risk to resurface

Rocket Man risk to resurface

14 Nov 2018 - Rory Green
  • The Singapore summit agreement is unravelling
  • For China, the trade war and North Korea are linked
  • Rifts in the South Korea-US alliance are emerging

Markets have discounted the “rocket man” risk, wh...

China North Korea Rory Green South Korea Trade War


Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

09 Nov 2018 - Bo Zhuang
  • Beijing is not simply repeating an old-style credit easing to prop up the economy
  • The positive spill-over effect of China stimulus on the global economy will be offset by further yuan devaluation 
  • Growth will decelerate fu...

    Bo Zhuang China credit Global growth PMI Yuan

Oil takes the world off the boil

Oil takes the world off the boil

11 Oct 2018 - Charles Dumas
  • September's $25-$30/barrel YoY addition to oil prices costs 1% of world GDP
  • Non-oil EMs, EA, Japan and Korea worst hit - significant demand slowdown
  • US, China less affected - shale frackers and other producers to boom in 20...

    China EA Emerging Markets Japan Korea Oil Oil price US

Tyranny of the Benchmark

Tyranny of the Benchmark

11 Oct 2018 - Oliver Brennan
  • Market surveys on trade wars indicates escalation is expected
  • But asset markets remain largely undisturbed
  • This is the nature of a continuous market attempting to discount a bimodal event; asset prices could still undergo a sud...

    China FOMC MARKETS Oliver Brennan Trade Trade War TRUMP USD

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

21 Sep 2018 - Lawrence Brainard

Larry Brainard looks beyond the relentless march of President Trump’s escalating trade war. He explains why market forces will reshape world trade. The world will fracture into distinct trading blocs. The pattern is already beginning to take shape.

China Globalization Manufacturing Trade Trade War Trump


Trade War: More escalation ahead

Trade War: More escalation ahead

18 Sep 2018 - Jonathan Fenby & Bo Zhuang
  • Trade confrontation has intensified. We expect US tariffs vs. China to rise to 25% 
  • China unlikely to offer concessions
  • We maintain our 15% yuan devaluation call

We warned our clients that the US-Sino tra...

China Tariffs Trade War US


EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

05 Sep 2018 - Jon Harrison
  • Argentina, Turkey could be manageable, Brazil less so, China not at all
  • EM crises, tighter liquidity and Trade War lead to correlated markets
  • Negative feedback to DM will be via trade and China 

We mainta...

Argentina Brazil China Emerging Markets Liquidity Trade Trade War Turkey


Trade war morphing into FX war

Trade war morphing into FX war

07 Aug 2018 - Charles Dumas

As the trade war situation has now escalated we now see this as a key political shock. We expect China to retaliate vigorously to any fresh US import tariffs and see the likely battle ground as Foreign Exchange. China’s probable response would be to s...

Charles Dumas China FX Tariffs Trade war US


EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

11 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Our latest thoughts from my colleague Larry Brainard re the EM recent washout. Recent EM market weakness is not a broader retrenchment in EM assets, but risks of contagion from the Argentine and Turkish crises are growing; ​US-China trade conflicts a...

Argentina Emerging Markets Turkey US China Trade


Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

11 May 2018 - Martin Shenfield

As President Trump’s trade delegation returns from Beijing from preliminary discussions, we question how and when the US and China will be able to resolve their trade and economic disputes. Given not only the gulf that lies between the ultimate object...

Donald Trump Made in China 2025 Protectionism Trade War US China Trade


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