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Trade and tech risks still not priced in

Trade and tech risks still not priced in

28 May 2019 - Jon Harrison

In his lead article from EM Watch of 28 May, Jon Harrison argues that neither trade nor tech risk are still correctly priced in despite the chaos of the US-China trade negotiations.

#China #EM Watch #Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #PMI #Tariff #Tech #Trade War #US Technology #Xi Jinping

Chipping away at technology

Chipping away at technology

24 May 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Eleanor Olcott has gone into the fine detail of Chinese and US protectionist legislation.

#5G #Eleanor Olcott #Huawei #Tech #Technology #Trade War

China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

17 Apr 2019 - Rory Green

Chinese Q1 GDP was the weakest in decades on the offical reading. The TS Lombard recalculation shows it to be even weaker at 5.2% yoy. Rory Green writes:

#China #Exports #GDP #Import #Rory Green #Trade War

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

02 Apr 2019 - Martin Shenfield
  • Global macro data to disappoint
  • Deflationary pressures rebuilding
  • Yield curve inversion will reinforce Central Banks’ s dovish response
  • EM equities due further consolidation/correction
#Central Banks #Emerging Markets #Equities #Fed #Martin Shenfield #Trade #Yield curve

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

27 Mar 2019 - Jon Harrison

EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations.

#China #Emerging Markets #Equities #Eurozone #Jon Harrison #QT #Stocks #Tariff #Trade

Fed moves halfway to an ease

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steve Blitz

As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.

#Fed #FOMC #interest rates #QT #Recession #Steve Blitz #US Treasury #Yield curve

Global tech breakup

Global tech breakup

20 Feb 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA.

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Tech

How strong is the US economy?

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steve Blitz

Steve Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.

#Equities #Fed #QT #Steve Blitz #US Economy

Trade war: Patchwork solution

Trade war: Patchwork solution

30 Jan 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott.  Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Huawei #Trade War

Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

#Dario Perkins #Fed #Recession watch #US

Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steve Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 
#Fed #FOMC #Interest Rates #Powell #Steve Blitz #US Economy #Yield Curve

Time-out not time up for trade war

Time-out not time up for trade war

03 Dec 2018 - Eleanor Olcott
  • Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
  • But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
  • After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 
#Eleanor Olcott #g20 #Tariffs #Trade War #Trump #Xi Jinping

Anti-Chinese Walls

Anti-Chinese Walls

30 Nov 2018 - Constantine Fraser
  • Mercantilism and geopolitics mean Europe is getting tough on Chinese FDI
  • New EU legislation looks weak on the tin, but will have more far reaching effects
  • In the realm of direct investment, regionalisation is getting underway
#China #Chinese FDI #Constantine Fraser #EU Legislation #Europe

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

19 Nov 2018 - Steve Blitz

If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect between the Fed continuing to put out these forecasts and the evolving economic outlook.

#Fed #FOMC #Rate Hikes #Steve Blitz #TRUMP

Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

15 Nov 2018 - Shweta Singh
  • Foreigners' appetite for US Treasuries is diminishing
  • Declining EM FX reserves take away a key source of demand
  • Hedged US yield pick-up for DM investors no longer attractive
#Bond Yields #ECB #Fed #FX #QE #Shweta Singh #Yield curve

Rocket Man risk to resurface

Rocket Man risk to resurface

14 Nov 2018 - Rory Green
  • The Singapore summit agreement is unravelling
  • For China, the trade war and North Korea are linked
  • Rifts in the South Korea-US alliance are emerging
#China #North Korea #Rory Green #South Korea #Trade War

Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

09 Nov 2018 - Bo Zhuang
  • Beijing is not simply repeating an old-style credit easing to prop up the economy
  • The positive spill-over effect of China stimulus on the global economy will be offset by further yuan devaluation 
  • Growth will decelerate further until a stronger policy response in H1/19
#Bo Zhuang #China #credit #Global growth #PMI #Yuan

Oil takes the world off the boil

Oil takes the world off the boil

11 Oct 2018 - Charles Dumas
  • September's $25-$30/barrel YoY addition to oil prices costs 1% of world GDP
  • Non-oil EMs, EA, Japan and Korea worst hit - significant demand slowdown
  • US, China less affected - shale frackers and other producers to boom in 2019
#China #EA #Emerging Markets #Japan #Korea #Oil #Oil price #US

Tyranny of the Benchmark

Tyranny of the Benchmark

11 Oct 2018 - Oliver Brennan
  • Market surveys on trade wars indicates escalation is expected
  • But asset markets remain largely undisturbed
  • This is the nature of a continuous market attempting to discount a bimodal event; asset prices could still undergo a sudden shift
#China #FOMC #MARKETS #Oliver Brennan #Trade #Trade War #TRUMP #USD

The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
#Fed #Inflation #Recession #Trade War #US

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