Shweta Singh-1

Shweta Singh

Managing Director, Global Macro and Europe Economics

Shweta joined TS Lombard in 2011. She is Managing Director, Global Macro and Europe Economics. Shweta leads the coverage of euro area economics and ECB policy. She also focusses on international macro themes with an emphasis on identifying key trends and turning points in global financial flows.

Shweta started her career as a Researcher at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). She has also worked as a Researcher at the UN. Before joining TS Lombard, she was an Economist at Morgan Stanley (MS) for four years in Mumbai and Singapore.  At MS, she was a member of the top-rated Asia Economics team (Institutional Investor Survey).

Shweta is a regular commentator in TV and print media. She holds an M.Sc. in Economics from the LSE and an MSc. in Finance from the London Business School.

Shweta Singh contributes to the Europe Watch and Global Financial Trends publications.

Europe Watch: Updates of our key European economic, political and policy and market views. (One note per week)
Global Financial Trends: Analysis and forecast of global financing conditions and the credit cycle with early warning of vulnerabilities in the financial system and potential triggers. (10 issues a year)

Global Financial Trends - Shweta Singh

Shweta Singh's Top Market Calls

February 2021 - Europe

False inflation alarm

We said: Euro area inflation surge is a false alarm. Temporary factors, energy prices, and new CPI weights explain the rise. Beyond the pandemic-related noise, underlying inflation will remain muted.
Outcome: In its latest monetary policy meeting, the ECB dismissed inflation surge on the reasons we have highlighted. It continues to forecast underlying inflation to remain firmly below its target until at least 2023.

February 2021 - Europe

EA Growth locked-down again

We said: We expect a double-dip recession in Q1 and real GDP to expand by 4% this year.
Outcome: Consensus expectations for Q1 output have been revised down from 0.6% q/q at the start of the year to -0.8% recently. Forecasts for the 2021 growth have been downgraded from 4.6% to 4.2%.

September 2020 - Europe

The K-shaped recovery in the euro area

We said: Euro area’s K-shaped recovery means German outperformance, struggling services but resilient manufacturing, and rising input costs but falling output prices.
Outcome: Germany continues to outperform the EA. Manufacturing is resilient while the services sector remains fragile. Margin pressure on producers has worsened over the last year and is the most intense since the EA debt crisis.

August 2020 - Europe

The money trap

We said: Euro area money supply growth has risen rapidly since March, approaching historical highs. But the velocity of money will remain depressed. We expect a long grind of slow growth and disinflationary pressures to dominate.
Outcome: EA real output remains well-below the pre-pandemic level. The euro area is lagging behind most developed economies in recouping Covid-related economic losses. The central bank expects underlying inflation to remain firmly below its target until at least 2023.

June 2020 - Europe

QE Boost

We said: The central bank may need to expand its asset purchases further by at least €1tn by next year. An increase will likely be announced before the end of the year - but it may not be the last one.
Outcome: The ECB boosted its asset purchases under its pandemic QE programme (PEPP) by €500bn in December. It will also continue to buy assets at a monthly rate of €20bn under its traditional QE programme (APP). We expect more asset purchases to be announced before the end of this year.

March 2020 - Europe

Covid-19: The Coming Demand Shock and the Needed Policy Response

We said: The Covid-19 pandemic will damage domestic demand, especially services. Countries in the EA periphery are the most exposed. Limiting the transmission of negative spillovers to firms’ cash flows and to employment is crucial to avoid more serious medium-term damage from contagion. Fiscal policy will need to be stepped up significantly. Don’t write off ECB easing: serious discussions about changing the ECB’s self-imposed limits on ECB QE should be on the cards by now.
Outcome: Domestic demand collapsed, led by services, especially in tourist-dependent EA periphery. EA consensus (according to a Bloomberg survey) growth forecasts for this year were revised down from 1% to -8%. EA governments strengthened or introduced income/employment support programmes and provided liquidity to firms via guaranteed loans and equity injections causing national budget deficits to widen dramatically. Few days later, the ECB launched new liquidity measures including a €750bn asset purchase programme – the PEPP – to which the traditional asset purchase constraints did not apply.

April 2020 - Europe

Deflationary bias to be pronounced in the euro area

We said:  A large negative output gap, huge labour income losses, and a sharp rise in uncertainty and precautionary savings will keep inflationary pressures subdued in the euro area for longer. Surging money and credit growth – usually considered precursors to rapid economic growth – mask fragile underlying credit trends.
Outcome: Inflation has missed consensus forecasts since the pandemic. Inflation expectations for this year (according to a Bloomberg Survey) have been revised lower from 1% to 0.3%.

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