US monetary tightening is widening global risk premiums, affecting a wide range of asset prices – tech stocks, EM borrowing costs and even European periphery bonds. The US dollar has also strengthened recently, a move which – if it went further – could have important implications for global financial markets.READ ME
The consensus expects a dull 2018, with solid global growth, a modest pickup in inflation and gradual monetary tightening. We look for risks. China is the clearest threat to the global cycle, though a G7 inflation surprise is likelier. Market-based risks (yields, USD shortage) seem more imminent than macroeconomic dangers.READ ME
One of the first steps that the Bharatiya Janata Party took after assuming office in the southern state of Karnataka earlier in May was to waive farm loans up to Rs100,000 (US$1,500) each. The state government that introduced this measure lasted only two days, but its successor is under pressure to continue with the estimated Rs530 billion write-off. All parties are wooing the rural voter in the run-up to India’s 2019 general elections. Below we examine how India’s troubled rural economy will shape the economics and politics of the country in the next 12 months.
Over the last 12 months we have closely followed Muhammad bin Salman’s relaunch of his Kingdom. In this note we join up the findings of the past year of research to answer the question: what will the new Saudi Arabia look like?
At the six-month mark to the October general election, important parameters have been set on what is still shaping up to be Brazil’s most unpredictable presidential race in three decades. In the wake of the high-profile imprisonment of former President Lula – the country’s current presidential frontrunner – fragmentation remains the rule of the game: myriad dark horse candidates across the political spectrum have entered the race in the absence of strong consensus centrist candidates. Another trend is the growing anti-establishment movement, with new players eager to surf the wave of rising popular anger. Over the next three months, political parties will begin to forge electoral alliances with an eye to aggregating more free, mandatory TV/radio electoral ad time for their candidates; such alliances will be key to monitor.READ ME
Widening twin deficits and rising inflation are fast emerging as risks to India’s macroeconomic stability that will threaten the nascent growth revival.READ ME
Risk: We maintain our negative call on overall risk.
Russia: We move to a positive call on equities following an easing of sanctions risk.
Brazil: We move to strong negative on faltering recovery and rising political risk
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We have a 28 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.READ MORE