Ultimately the key question boils down to whether he'll be a dove or a hawk and how could he tip the balance of power in Frankfurt. Research firm TS Lombard believes your best bet lies in the middle. "Without a strong background of his own in monetary policy, it is very possible de Guindos will turn out to be more neutral a voice – some might say a malleable one - on the executive board than the dovish Constancio," they write. If de Guindos gets picked, as it seems,, that would add pressure to appoint a northerner to replace Draghi, paving the way for a clearly hawkish German ECB presidency. "The most obvious German candidate is the controversial, hawkish head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann – but with or without him, a shift towards a less dovish executive board by end 2019 looks likely," TS Lombard adds.
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