How long could the central banks, in particular the ECB, still control the development, asks Charles Dumas of TS Lombard. The true aim of the ECB's monetary policy is the exchange rate. But now the economy of the euro zone has developed so strongly and the foreign trade surplus has become so large that the central bank can do little against an appreciation of the euro. If it continues the excessively loose monetary policy, the euro zone's economy and foreign trade surplus continue to grow. But if it removes the stimulus, the bond yields rise. In both cases, the result is a higher euro exchange rate.
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