Given the importance of housing, it’s not surprising that it’s a leading indicator for overall growth. Builders’ sentiment has a good record of forecasting unemployment 18 months out, according to Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Their more negative view points to a rise in the jobless rate to around 4.5% by mid-2020, he adds. (A glance at the calendar shows the presidential election campaign would be in full swing then.)
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