Brazil is another EM to keep an eye on. The country is running a fiscal deficit — although mostly domestically funded — that is twice the size of Argentina's; it has now run five consecutive primary deficits. With growth in Brazil having stalled in the run-up to October's elections, TS Lombard analysts Elisabeth Johnson and Larry Brainard have sounded the alarm. "Unless the new administration moves quickly to pass a credible fiscal programme, Brazil runs the risk of following down the same path as Argentina and Turkey," they said.
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