"Multilateral tariffs are certainly a warning sign that this is no longer merely a case of US protectionism and that the world is edging towards a trade war," said Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note. "In such a circumstance, global trade growth could fall by 10pp and global GDP by over 1.5pp (according to IMF estimates, after five years). "The impact of tariffs has been mostly restricted to those sectors that are directly affected. Retaliation is likely to widen the impact and increase political risk, but for now the US economy continues to motor on," Brennan said.
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