April 2018 Chartbook

  • Macro Drivers. Fiscal stimulus is stoking an overheating US economy, trade wars may be a drag
  • Multi Asset. S&P ERP in line with long-term average, making stocks fair value vs bonds
  • Fixed Income. Market underestimates pace of Fed hikes; ECB underestimates impact of unwinding QE
  • Currencies. Change in Fed reaction function means USD no longer the worst currency in the world
  • Equities. The RoE gap between EA/Japan and the US is narrowing, supporting higher valuations
  • Commodities. Oil demand to continue outstripping supply in the absence of trade wars

Economics

Politics

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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