S&P Not Heavily Overvalued

  • As a measure of over/under valuation, a ratio must revert to mean, long term
  • The 1914-91 'short 20th century' distorted CAPE and price/book ratios down
  • The S&P real value index has 6.6% pa real total return and reverts  to mean
  • The RVI, now 16% overvalued, could get more so before it falls back

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