Is The Next Lehman Japanese

  • European banks played a decisive role in the subprime crisis 
  • Japanese banks may have taken over as the main systemic vulnerability
  • Japanese lenders have huge dollar funding needs, like European banks in 2007
  • This leaves them exposed to renewed Eurodollar strains
  • Risk-taking has certainly increased at Japanese banks 
  • But their foreign asset quality is better with still large UST holdings
  • Poor profitability will worsen with UST losses and a dollar rebound
  • But risks of asset fire sales are limited at this point

Economics

Politics

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