Brexit: Inevitable FTA

The conclusion of this note is not something that clients will find in media commentary, most of which is about the rights and wrongs of Boris Johnson’s new treaty-breaking wheeze – which usefully highlights why the UK will end up with a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. Christopher Granville explains why there really is no alternative for the UK. The argument does not hinge on punditry (about e.g. economic damage from a no deal): instead we focus on powerful and unavoidable political and legal impacts that would make a no deal unsustainable: so even an unlikely no deal shock on 1 January wouldn’t last very long. The investment conclusion folds Oliver Brennan’s recent Macro Strategy take on GBP into a perspective on the longer-run outlook – telling clients what details to look out for in the small print of the coming FTA as clues to sterling’s directional bias.

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