Brazil: 2021 budget highlights fiscal challenges ahead

  • The 2021 budget points to a very challenging outlook, and fiscal populism will continue to be the main risk to monitor next year
  • The spending cap will remain the only fiscal anchor in 2021, but the government will struggle to comply with it
  • While automatic spending cuts likely to be triggered by the rule could be positive, any attempt to change the rule will be a strong negative
  • Q2/20 GDP posted the sharpest drop on record, but the emergency aid measures will continue to drive the recovery through H2/20
  • Progress on reform has brought some relief to markets

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