World slump - weak rebound at best

Tax cuts, fiscal support and loan forbearance only go so far: people cannot spend extra money when they are locked down. We have downgraded our growth forecasts, to of -17% for Q2 and -7.6% for Q3 GDP in the US (q/q SAAR). And this means the likely decline in S&P earnings will be in the region of 30%. This, and some weak-economy erosion of forward p/e ratios imply a fair value for the S&P index down into the 1600-1800 range.

But that’s not all.  Debts built up in the last dozen years of easy money will mean squeezed margins create vulnerability in the US, also France and possibly Japan.

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