Asset Allocation: Recovery underway

  • Global outlook improves as activity bottoms out and growth stabilises
  • More countries are now at the Recovery stage of the cycle than in Slowdown
  • This is the most favourable phase for risk asset performance
  • However, expensive valuations should limit the upside in 2020
  • We stay 11% o/w on equities but rotate more into emerging markets
  • Brazil upgraded to +2, Korea to +1; Germany up to 0, Turkey down to 0
  • CNY up to +1 on trade-deal goodwill; CHF cut to -1, RUB to 0
  • Middle East risks are real but positioning for them is uncompelling
  • We cut EM bonds by 1% and add that to Energy commodities

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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