EM Strategy Monthly: Trade war to fade as EM driver: All hail monetary easing!

  • Risk: We maintain our positive call on overall risk owing to the dovish tilt of central banks in both DMs and EMs.
  • Turkey: We raise our calls on Turkish assets to short-term positive as the ongoing recession will bring down inflation and rates faster than expected.
  • Russia: We remain positive on Russian assets; despite slowing growth, the easing monetary cycle now under way should buoy valuations.
  • Brazil: Given the prospect of the passage of pension reform, we expect markets to be upbeat, despite ongoing economic stagnation.

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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