China Watch: Trade truce no panacea

Economics

  • Export growth to remain weak in H2/19
  • Manufacturing and property investment weigh on headline growth
  • Measured monetary stimulus continues 

Markets

  • The US is increasingly preoccupied with currency manipulation
  • China is prepared to maintain a stable currency as part of a trade deal
  • The reduction of downside renminbi risk will benefit wider EM FX

Politics

  • Beijing steps up market-opening reforms in manufacturing and services to entice foreign investment
  • There is more style than substance in the hastily drawn-up measures
  • Financial sector reforms will do little to level the playing field for foreigners

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Politics

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