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  • Trade war is about ‘Who’s no. 1?’ – truce in spring, 2020, but no solution
  • Biggest damage has been outside the US and China
  • Non-oil EMs (esp. outside SE Asia) badly hurt by dollar-up/yuan-down
  • Japan, Korea, German-centred Europe and Italy also hurt
  • ‘Japanisation’ of EA unlikely, but populist ructions probable
  • US slowed by weaker exports & capex, with inventory overhang
  • Strong dollar also lowers US inflation – rates to be cut 50bp in 2019
  • Chinese growth bottoming out in 2019 H1, H2 recovery only modest
  • US$ hegemony as reserve currency to be gradually eroded
  • Inflation targets – folly – monetarist monopoly caused poor recovery

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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