US Watch: Policymakers losing control of their narrative?

Economics: Fed’s grasp of the economy can slip

  • Higher inflation goal means risk/reward favours FOMC doing more now
  • June employment data do not alter the narrative of slower growth
  • Is 2019 a repeat of 2016? Construction data say no

Markets: Fed losing control of the funds rate?

  • Controlling fed funds rate floor to get tougher with low excess reserves
  • New debt ceiling to boost issuance and again widen funds/IOER spread
  • Stealth QE to the rescue?

Politics: New era of arbitrary political risk for tech

  • Weaponizing tech interdependence
  • Huawei still in US sights
  • Japanese export restrictions threaten global supply chains

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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