Russia: Labour fix

  • The CBR thinks that the NAIRU has been reached, but it still signals rate cuts. There is a more fundamental resolution to this apparent paradox than present favourable inflation trends – underlined by the March print just out..
  • The key is active labour market policies aimed at redistributing labour now inefficiently hoarded in the public sector.
  • This policy promises sweeping benefits: increased productivity in the public sector, more defensible corporate profit margins with top lines meanwhile supported by sustainable domestic demand growth.
  • A rate cut is coming no later than June.

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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