The View: Trade war raises recession risk

  • We stick to our view that trade-war threats will be contained, BUT
  • While the June G20 meeting may steady nerves, major risks remain
  • This View is a glimpse over the brink
  • ‘Who’s No.1?’: now the key driver – trumping Trump’s agenda & tactics
  • US v. China rivalry will fester into the 2020s even in the benign scenario
  • A globalised world could shift to regional blocs, hurting equity values
  • The short-term danger of the trade-war negotiations derailing is high
  • Failure to extend the Huawei truce in August could ruin scope for a deal
  • If so, the world economy could tip rapidly into recession

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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