Asset Allocation: Global demand shock

  • A sizeable shock to global demand is likely – the US won’t be immune
  • Activity should improve in H2, but less than consensus assumes
  • Markets have chosen to look though bad data – how long will this last?
  • Dovish Fed, US-China deal mostly priced in, leaving little upside potential
  • US stocks cut to 0, China to -1; CNY up to 0 on portfolio inflows, trade deal
  • We further de-risk our portfolio, cutting EM equities and commodities
  • We rotate from cash to bonds to reduce our duration underweight
  • Main risk to our cautious view: US and China roll back existing tariffs

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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Track Record

We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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To request an interview with a member of our team, please get in touch zdl@tslombard.com .

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