Macro Strategy: Yield curve: The signal and the noise

  • 3m-10y inversion always precedes a recession
  • S&P sectoral performance tends to switch to safety upon inversion: we go long a safe basket vs short a growth basket
  • We also take profit on our long October fed funds future as market now discounts high chance of a cut this year

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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