China Watch: Profit crash

Markets

  • Infrastructure investment will lead government stimulus efforts
  • But a run of negative economic figures is likely before such fiscal stimulus kicks in
  • After a strong performance in Q1/19, equities appear fully valued

Economics

  • PPI decline will weigh on profits and investment
  • 2019 will be another record year for corporate defaults
  • Nominal GDP growth below 7% will trigger a strong policy response

Politics

  • Structural reforms will be resisted
  • Communist Party stresses political security
  • Anti-corruption campaign takes on new dimension

Economics

Politics

Markets

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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