LatAm: Mexico: Legislative pushback, NAFTA 2.0

  • Ongoing resistance to proposed constitutional changes is a positive sign that the seemingly all-powerful AMLO cannot always get his way
  • After sailing past the Lower House, the nationwide referendum bill faces an irate Senate opposition bloc, raising the odds that the text will be modified
  • A mild education counter-reform proposal has also run into obstacles – this time from AMLO’s base; how the government responds will be a key test ahead
  • Legislative delays have stalled progress on the labour bill, adding to doubts in the US about Mexico’s ability to meet its NAFTA 2.0 commitments
  • Dwindling odds of NAFTA 2.0 ratification in the US Congress this year will raise risk perceptions for Mexican asset prices and feed uncertainty

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