EM Strategy Monthly: China is driving aggregate EM indices: investors beware!

  • Risk: We maintain our neutral call on EM risk: easing by the Fed and PBoC is positive but we sense global growth is slowing and deflation risks are rising.
  • Brazil: We cut our call on equities to negative as we expect markets to be stuck in limbo until progress is made on pension reform.
  • China: We maintain our negative call as we expect markets to correct in the next two-three months.
  • Russia: We maintain our positive call on equities as we believe local markets are relatively immune from new sanctions.

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