Asset Allocation: Adrenaline shot

  • Synchronised central bank easing gives adrenaline shot to ailing cycle
  • QT taper will struggle to steepen US curve, a rate cut may be needed
  • Market rally fragile, as not supported by flows, with vol still high
  • China ‘QE’ sparks some credit growth but the stimulus will disappoint
  • DMs stocks face risks but earnings not collapsing – we stay 3% o/w
  • EM long trade starting to look tired, we cut 5% between stocks and bonds
  • Another TLTRO round should support BTPs and BONOs
  • We stay u/w bonds, o/w cash as we prefer short duration in fixed income
  • USD longs large but narrow, 2019 performance will depend on crosses

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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