Strategy Chartbook: March 2019 Chartbook

  • Macro Drivers. Negative trade growth and inventory overhang spells further growth slowdown
  • Multi Asset. Low volatility may not last too long, especially in rates, credit and EM equities
  • Fixed Income. Foreigners sold $90bn of US govt bonds in Q4, the highest pace of sales since 2016
  • Currencies. USD is rich and the market is long, but it is more likely to drift lower than collapse
  • Equities. The VIX below 15 hints at new highs for US equities, but a consolidation phase is still likely
  • Commodities. Tailwinds for crude – demand dominance, financial markets recovery – are fading

 

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