China Watch: China turns inwards

Politics

  • NPC policies proposals support Xi’s vision of a self-reliant China
  • Global policies are ceding to domestic ones, as seen by the shift in emphasis from “Belt and Road” to “Greater Bay Area”
  • Two pieces of legislation to pass through the NPC this week will exacerbate the US-China “tech war”

Economics

  • Government work report sets 6-6.5% GDP target; we expect 6.2%
  • Sustainable fiscal stimulus will support a moderate growth rebound
  • NPC credit goals are unfeasible, further stimulus will cause broad credit revival

Markets

  • The authorities will struggle to deliver a boost to growth via monetary measures and will be forced to introduce additional stimulus
  • Magnitude and real economy impact of monetary stimulus will disappoint

Economics

Politics

05 Apr 2019

Russia: Labour fix

Markets

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