The View: Trade war damage to trigger Fed rate cut

  • 2018’s rising dollar and falling yuan caused an EM-led global slowdown
  • Triggers were Fed QT with a doubled US federal deficit, and trade war
  • EMs incl. China, 40% of world GDP, could be very slow in early 2019
  • Export dependent DMs, Europe and Pacific rim, also hit
  • The high dollar hurts US exports, and S&P earnings, while capex slows
  • Latest Fed hike hurt after stock prices slumped, also gov’t. shutdown
  • Fed will taper QT soon, and then cut rates a notch in Q3
  • With Chinese stimulus also coming through, recovery into 2020

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