Brazil: Pension reform takes shape

  • Growing popular support for reforming the pension system will aid approval of the reform
  • Economy Minister Guedes appears to be winning the battle for a more ambitious pension reform, but Bolsonaro will have the final word
  • Another good sign for reform is growing support for the re-election of Lower House Speaker Maia, but the Senate presidency remains a risk
  • A further risk is posed by Bolsonaro’s top political coordinators, who do not support a robust reform

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