Asset Allocation: Pause for thought

  • Fed likely to pause after March hike as rates reach neutral
  • A slower escalation of the trade war means CNY depreciation to decelerate
  • More stable yuan, Fed pause to ease upward pressure on dollar
  • This should support US equities as strong USD becoming a headwind
  • Stocks’ recovery should continue, though volatility likely to persist a bit longer
  • Slower earnings growth and tighter liquidity to cause further de-rating of equities
  • Yields stable near term, but end of QE, heavy issuance to push up US yields later
  • We keep a bullish bias on USD against EM FX, but upgrade CAD, AUD

Economics

Politics

Markets

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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