Brazil: GDP data highlights long road to recovery

  • The Brazilian economy continued to underperform in Q3/18, expanding by just 0.8% qoq/sa
  • But the outlook for 2019 has brightened, as the end of election-related uncertainty has helped to boost key indicators
  • Strong October tax collection data confirms that the 2018 primary deficit will be smaller than the yearend target, but the longer-term fiscal outlook remains bleak 
  • President-elect Bolsonaro will meet with key party leaders this week but faces potential bad news if up to 15 parties form a united front, isolating his PSL party
  • Brazilian farmers are vigilantly monitoring the US-China trade talks as they prepare to harvest Brazil’s largest soy crop in history

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