EM Strategy Monthly: Trade war is already past 'peak Trump' for EMs

  • Risk: We maintain our moderate negative call on overall risk.
  • Brazil: We hike our call on equities to strong positive following the recent elections.
  • Mexico: We cut our call on equities to negative following the cancellation of Mexico City’s new airport project.
  • Russia: Large current account and fiscal surpluses put Russia in a strong position in the event of renewed sanctions. We maintain our positive call on equities.

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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