EM Strategy Monthly: Short-term relief but no medium-term let-up

  • Risk: We raise our call on overall risk to moderate negative from strong negative.
  • Brazil: We raise our call on equities to positive as we expect a hope rally following the election this month.
  • China: Growth has been little affected by Trump’s trade war; we move to a positive call on equities after the recent downturn.
  • Russia: With its large current account and fiscal surpluses, Russia is in a strong position to outperform; we maintain our positive call on equities.

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