LatAm: Did Mexico lose or win with the new trilateral deal?

  • The new trilateral deal set to replace NAFTA does not significantly address the core issues for which the deal was renegotiated: the erosion of US manufacturing jobs and the US trade deficit with Mexico.
  • At the micro level, the new guidelines reduce the competitiveness of the automotive industry but provide safeguards against potential trade tariffs in this sector.
  • At the macro level, the end of a forced renegotiation reduces trade uncertainty, improves business sentiment and lifts the country’s outlook.
  • The next challenge is to have the new deal approved by the Canadian parliament and the US Congress – the Mexican Senate has already expressed its willingness to ratify it.
  • Overall, the final deal makes Mexico and North America somewhat more protectionist and fulfils the aspirations of some stakeholders to “turn this hemisphere into a manufacturing powerhouse”.

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