LSR View: From trade wars to trading blocs

  • The US-China economic conflict will be long and ugly with little chance of a deal anytime soon
  • Further US escalation to 25% tariffs on the bulk of Chinese exports is likely
  • Markets will drive a re-globalisation of China trade and spur the creation of an Asian trading bloc centred on the PRC
  • China’s trading partners in East and Southeast Asia will reap positive benefits over the medium term
  • Trump’s goal of reshoring manufacturing jobs to the US will not be realised
  • The degeneration of a globalised trading world into regional blocs will in the long run reduce CAPE and thus equity valuations
  • A bear market is a major risk over the next two to three years

Economics

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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