September 2018 Chartbook

  • Macro Drivers. Late-cycle signs in the US, and Chinese credit growth to pick up
  • Multi Asset. Liquidity tightening is starting to bite, just as EMs face a perfect storm
  • Fixed Income. Curve flattening risks inversion, especially as 10y yield has been unchanged for 6 months
  • Currencies. If trade wars escalate, CNY could fall a lot further
  • Equities. EMs cheap enough to rebound – but this is unlikely while globalisation is going into reverse
  • Commodities. Oil demand outlook clouded by trade war, market likely to stay range-bound this year

Economics

Politics

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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