Global Political Drivers: Brexit rough passage to safety

  • Amid the Brexit noise crescendo, we stick to our sanguine view: ‘crash-out’ risk is negligible
  • Recent action has usefully demonstrated the ‘parliamentary arithmetic’ underpinning this call
  • The UK government’s manoeuvrings also provide useful pointers for stress testing our view
  • Noise is not just inevitable but intrinsic to the Brexit process, since brinkmanship is a political self-preservation strategy
  • ​Lean into likely EURGBP surges as this season heads to its winter finale

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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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