EMEA: Turkey crash landing

US sanctions have come just as Turkey’s overheating situation reaches a crunch point. Here we assess the outlook for what could be Turkey’s worst economic crisis since 2001.

  • New sanctions are not likely in the short-term.
  • However going into mid-Q4 there is a real risk of US banking sanctions if the Turkish government does not back down.
  • With or without new sanctions though, Turkey is heading into crisis.
  • Talk of capital controls and IMF intervention is going too far, but a very hard landing is now unavoidable.
  • ​We maintain a negative outlook on all Turkish asset classes.

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