Daily Note: Trade war morphing into FX war

  • China seems highly likely to retaliate vigorously to fresh US import tariffs 
  • The dollar, up 7% in real terms, and yuan down 8%, could move much more 
  • China will need to devalue fast to get ahead of and dampen capital outflows 
  • An FX war would certainly be damaging for stocks, perhaps bonds too 

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