Global Financial Trends: Emerging crisis (in charts)

  • Emerging markets (EMs) are in the firing line on multiple fronts 
  • Cumulative monthly purchases of G4 central banks likely to cease by the end of next year 
  • Large $-borrowing makes EMs particularly vulnerable to higher Eurodollar funding costs 
  • Trade wars intensify uncertainty at a time when volatility and risk premia are rising 
  • Higher energy prices are an added worry for oil importers with large external funding needs 
  • Yet, EM FX drop against the dollar has been more severe than in 2013 taper tantrum 
  • But gains in overall EM competitiveness are relatively modest  
  • The starting point is relatively better for most EMs than half a decade ago… 
  • …but headwinds are more significant this time around 
  • We create a heat map to assess risks and opportunities among EMs 

 
 

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