LSR View: Rough trade to batter markets

  • Settlement of US-China trade disputes unlikely before US Mid-term elections 
  • Any deal would be unlikely to promise a big rise in US manufacturing jobs 
  • Extending the trade war to attack European surpluses could generate such jobs 
  • Continental European trade surpluses are the chief counterpart of US deficits 
  • Euro-Japanese savings gluts have caused consistent US$ overvaluation 
  • Uncertainties over trade wars could cause short-term stock market slump 
  • Voter response to trade wars unlikely to be fully clear before 2020 elections 
  • Breakdown from globalisation into regional trading blocs a long-term risk 

Economics

Politics

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