Brazil: Bolsonaro surfs the anti-establishment tidal wave

  • In a new investor survey by XP Investimentos, nearly half of those polled now see Bolsonaro winning the ballot, casting doubt on Brazil’s economic future.
  • The recent use of WhatsApp as a powerful tool to mobilize truckers points to its huge potential to influence voter behaviour; it may also mitigate Bolsonaro’s lack of TV/radio ad time.
  • Market-friendly, former São Paulo Governor Alckmin not only trails in fourth place in a new presidential poll but is tied with an alternate candidate from Lula’s Workers’ Party, underscoring his ongoing woes.
  • Alckmin is also tied with his former protégé-turned-rival, former São Paulo Mayor João Doria, who is now unlikely to replace him on the ballot.
  • The truckers’ strike – the latest manifestation of the widespread popular outrage that has been evident since 2013 – highlights the deepening crisis of governability in Brasilia today.
  • That crisis is unlikely to be fully resolved by the October election, adding to the fiscal headaches for the next President.

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