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19 Oct 2017 - Spectator

Xi Jinping is not a reformer but China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao

How the new emperor will use his second term — and perhaps a third to follow — to assert himself

19 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Making the Case for Jay Powell as Next Fed Chair

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, and Bloomberg Intelligence's Yelena Shulyatyeva discuss the race to be next Fed chair and their outlook for policy moves next year. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." 

18 Oct 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Xi’s authority likely to stretch beyond second term

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his view on Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the Communist Party Congress.

17 Oct 2017 - US News

If Precious Metals Rally, Then Pick Silver

"What has been propping up gold is geopolitics and Trump's tweets," says Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard in London.

13 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China is tackling its debt problem

According to the opinion of the economists of the research house TS Lombard, China has clearly entered a new cycle after the previous credit boom. For example, the growth of the money M2 this year has fallen below 10% for the first time in two decades. This economic-political change of times takes place against the backdrop of a stock market crash, which is only twenty months away, a massive capital inflow abroad and collapsing private investments.

11 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China's stock exchanges under the spell of politics

"The markets should eat before the party congress," a researcher from TS Lombard said. The Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have shown performances in the past few months that were among the best in the world. Thus, the Hong Kong Hang Seng has increased by 3.3% in the previous week, which is a plus of 29% since the beginning of the year.

11 Oct 2017 - Evening Standard

Anthony Hilton: Pension funds must start thinking politically

Share prices are indeed high by historic measures but, as TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins noted in a recent podcast, interest rates are also now recognised as likely to be permanently lower that they were a decade or more ago. Financial markets have adjusted to this change and the demand for higher-yielding equities has increased and would have done anyway, regardless of what central banks are doing.

09 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg

Fenby Says Rajoy Will Not Give Way to Catalonia

Jonathan Fenby, director at TS Lombard, discusses the possibility of Catalonia's independence from Spain. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

09 Oct 2017 - Le Figaro

Catalonia: crucial day on Tuesday for independence

A purely symbolic statement or a simple call for new regional elections would strengthen the government of Mariano Rajoy. "If it ignores its own referendum, the dynamics behind the Catalan independence would be dramatically dwarfed," said TS Lombard. "But ultimately, he will be forced to continue the dynamics of confrontation and escalation" in which he finds himself.

09 Oct 2017 - The Times of India

Talks or takeover? Next steps in Catalonia crisis

Without a declaration of independence, Puigdemont risks seeing "the momentum behind Catalan independence fizzle out anticlimactically as he ignores his own referendum," the TS Lombard analysts wrote.

06 Oct 2017 - CNBC

Why Italy, and not Spain, is the real risk that investors should be worrying about

"Beyond Catalonia, it is the Italian election we are concerned about," Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, told CNBC Thursday. Andrea underlined that the rising presence of populist parties is a risk for Italy's fiscal policy, given their policies to increase spending. 

05 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

Russian oligarch’s latest venture draws US$500m from CEFC’s sister company AnAn Group

“The Rosneft and EN+ deals are likely linked as a package ... it is a good opportunity for China to step up its involvement in and ownership of Russian natural resources,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, the chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners, who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

03 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

How global geopolitical forces play in a Chinese private firm’s favour in the purchase of key Russian jewel energy asset

Some analysts believe the 14 per cent stake in the world’s largest listed oil firm by output was a result of political consideration on Beijing’s part. “National oil companies had genuine concerns about getting closely involved with a company subject to United States’ sanctions, which could have backfired on them,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

02 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Optim-ISM

FT’s daily newsletter on the world of investment: John Authers quotes Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, on how strong manufacturing numbers imply a more aggressive Fed. 

25 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

China’s state-owned business reform a step in the wrong direction

“Mixed ownership will do little to change Unicom’s behaviour,” analysts at TS Lombard noted of China’s second-largest telecom wireless company. “On the contrary, it is the latest sign of the Chinese Communist party extending its influence over China’s private sector. SOE reforms suck resources from the private sector.” Moreover, the heavy hand of Beijing — and its obsession with control — is undermining solid economic performance as well as threatening financial stability.

17 Sep 2017 - CNBC

South Africa economy bruised but not broken amid political turmoil and downgrade

With inflation on its way down, Jon Harrison, managing director and head of emerging market macro strategy at London-based TS Lombard, says that "Political tensions remain a powerful driver of investor sentiment. We are relatively more positive on the local debt markets than on equities."

14 Sep 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Zapad symbolizes return to cold war style standoff: Trusted...

Christopher Granville, MD of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, takes a look at the geopolitical tension rising between Russia and the Baltic states.

11 Sep 2017 - MarketWatch

10-year Treasury yield climb most in 7 weeks as hurricane, North Korea fears ease

“There is no way the Fed is going to raise policy rates to flatten or invert the curve. This is one reason why, we believe, the Fed pulled forward the timing of its balance sheet reduction from December to September. In doing so, the Fed hopes that some increase in 10-year real yields will create the space for it to continue to raise the funds rate,” wrote analysts at TS Lombard led by Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz, in a Saturday research note.

11 Sep 2017 - CNBC

S&P 500 rallies to record close as Irma concerns decline; Dow jumps more than 250 points

"The [Trump] administration faces a battle to win UN Security Council approval of its call for an oil embargo and a partial naval blockade of the country," said Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. "Russia is hostile, calling new sanctions 'premature.' China's foreign minister has suggested it agrees more measures are needed but sources in Beijing say the leadership still opposes cutting off oil supplies."

10 Sep 2017 - Middle East Eye

Investor love affair with Turkey may end in tears

Investors are flocking to Turkey's rapidly growing economy, but some experts say it may not last.

07 Sep 2017 - CNBC

In 2017, Italy has made ‘significant progress’ in banking system...

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, takes a look at the performance of European banks as of late, with added comment on Italy and bond markets.

07 Sep 2017 - The Telegraph

Frankfurt wins post-Brexit prize to become EU financial centre, much to the horror of France

Frankfurt is sweeping aside rivals to become the dominant financial centre of the European Union after Brexit, a triumph that threatens to entrench German hegemony and profoundly upset the EU's internal balance of power.

07 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

Draghi faces another test to taper without tantrums

Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard, a research firm, said: Inflation is still rather low, so the ECB needs to make clear that the hurdle to embark on interest rate rises is much higher than the hurdle to tapering.

06 Sep 2017 - CNBC

Stocks close higher after Trump signals support for 3-month debt limit extension

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi "seem committed to tightening, both quantitatively and via interest rates, but monetary conditions will remain fairly stimulative so long as inflation does not become a problem," said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, in a note to clients.

06 Sep 2017 - Fortune

Germany Tells the ECB It’s Time to Start Raising Interest Rates

With the Federal Reserve having stopped its purchases and raised interest rates, global markets are now depending only on the ECB and Bank of Japan for continuing support. Both of those central banks are reluctant to exit such "unconventional" policy measures while inflation is still running below target. Charles Dumas, an analyst with TS Lombard in London, said in a note Wednesday that "serious concerns could be even further off" for the ECB than they are for the Fed, whose top officials are now expressing reservations about any further interest rate hikes in the U.S. this year.

01 Sep 2017 - Investment & Pensions Europe

EM debt: Experts clash over debt dynamics

Opinions differ sharply on the sustainability of emerging market debt. Industry expert, Lawrence Brainard, chief emerging markets economist, says the quality of debt has increased and assets have risen faster than debt.

01 Sep 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Expect Stronger Wage Growth Next Year: TS Lombard’s Blitz

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on jobs numbers and wages

31 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Manufacturing ‘unexpectedly strong’ in China

Strong Chinese factory PMI data has a "political context" as the Communist Party gets ready for its party conference in the fall, Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, said.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

The European periphery is back from the brink. Where should you invest?

Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece have come a long way since the 2008 financial crisis. They are now often cited as examples of where painful reforms led to economic growth. Given their turnaround, CNBC asked economists and market strategists which of these countries is the best option for investments.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Euro zone countries could be in danger if euro continues to rise, economist says

Countries like Portugal and Spain owe much of their recovery to exports. In Spain alone, exports have been higher than those of Germany, France and Italy (the biggest EU economies) since last year, according to data collected by TS Lombard.

28 Aug 2017 - Citywire Asia

China's debt engine runs at slow pace

‘Households have taken up the slack and become the major driver of credit growth,’ said Michelle Lam, senior economist at TS Lombard. The Chinese economic condition has proved resilient due to reflation and strong external demand, ‘but the mini-cycle has peaked, as property tightening takes its toll, Beijing’s resolve to press ahead with deleveraging will be tested’.

25 Aug 2017 - The Epoch Times

The State of the Global Economy

The US and global economies are doing fine, but not everything is as good as it looks.

25 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi's Drama-Free Jackson Hole Message Reaffirms Slow QE Exit

“As always seemed likely, this is no 2014 repeat -- we have to wait another fortnight for the Governing Council to hammer out an agreement on the next steps,” said Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “No expression of concern about currency strength is a green light for the euro to move higher, irrespective of the agenda for the event.”

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

No fireworks from Draghi in the immediate future

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, reacts to a speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Medium term trend of euro appreciation

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, weighs in on the euro zone economy.

22 Aug 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The "smart money" bets on the euro

Andrea Cicione, Head of Macro Strategy, assesses the situation of European Central Bank and the expected monetary policy normalization which suggest a risk that the euro will go through a consolidation phase.

17 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Leery of Ending Stimulus, Worried It Will Buoy Euro

Though the minutes signaled a central bank that was moving slowly, it was clear that at some point policy would change says Ken Wattret.

16 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Eurozone Growth Spreads, Helped by Dutch, Italian Economies

The Italian economy, which admittedly is still one of the weakest, is finally showing signs of life says Shweta Singh

15 Aug 2017 - CGTN

Wall Street's winning streak: Stocks surge and hit record highs

2017 have seen surging U.S. stocks, with a marked number of record highs for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But what's behind the increase? A tweeting President or company performance? 

14 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Trump aides seek to placate China ahead of trade move

China likely to exercise some restraint in the short term in the face of Mr Trump’s trade move, with Beijing inclined to wait to see the results of any investigation - says Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist

14 Aug 2017 - Reuters

Trump orders probe of China's intellectual property practices

Jonathan Fenby says China is not interested in a short-term trade fix with the United States and will resist "attempts to tie it down."

13 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Mario Draghi faces easing dilemma as strong euro sparks concern

Even without QE, monetary policy is going to remain extremely accommodative for a long time - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

13 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi Unfazed About the Strength of the Euro

Current market moves are reminiscent of those observed in the run-up to QE. The euro tumbled in the second half of 2014 in anticipation of large-scale bond buying, only to stabilize and even strengthen once the central bank started the program. - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

12 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Russia’s recovering economy fears US sanctions chill

Christopher Granville, MD EMEA research comments on the rising investment threatened by uncertainty over measures approved by Donald Trump

11 Aug 2017 - The Monocle

China and North Korea

China experts Jonathan Fenby discuss whether Beijing can solve the crisis on the Korean peninsula.

11 Aug 2017 - The Street

There Could Be a Powerful Force About to Rip Through the Stock Market That Rattles Nerves

"Markets go up and down, the "trend" can push valuations too far in one direction or the other and, when they do, sharp corrections ensue," TS Lombard managing director Steven Blitz said of Friday's swift downdraft in the tech space. "Tech is just another of many sectors, albeit a high profile one because of the names in the sector, subject to the fear and greed of market participants. In other words, Friday's downswing is probably nothing more meaningful than a re-balancing of market sentiment."

09 Aug 2017 - The Spectator

Fire and Fury: Could this war of words turn ugly?

Jonathan Fenby comments on the tensions between North Korea and US on The Spectator Podcast.

08 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Beijing’s chicanery leaves western business guessing

Jonathan Fenby traces the crackdown back to the dramatic abduction of Xiao Jianhua, head of the Tomorrow Group investment company, during the Chinese new year.

07 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow notches 9th straight record close

 "There is still juice left for equity investors," says Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy

07 Aug 2017 - MarketWatch

Dollar struggles to extend post-jobs-report glow

Recent euro strength has prompted some investors to question whether the European Central Bank’s tapering intentions could be curtailed. This is understandable given the scale and speed of the euro’s appreciation (though we have long been flagging the likelihood of both), says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe economist at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Amazon economy helps explain paradoxes facing investors

John Authers quotes Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on the impact of ecommerce

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Wall St weighs in on US jobs, wages

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, says while the improvement in wages was rooted in low wage jobs that is unlikely to prompt the Fed to stray from the plans.

04 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the July Employment Report: ‘A Banner Jobs Report’

“The great deceleration in hiring that began at the beginning of 2015 and ran through 2016 is now done with, with monthly private sector job gains settling in at an average of 180,000. Looking through the numbers we see much of the resurgence is in low wage jobs. Some 45% of the July increase was in health care and restaurants. And with that, aggregate wage growth slows.” - Steve Blitz, TS Lombard

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

China doesn't do bilateral diplomacy

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, discusses the Trump administration's attitude towards the Middle Kingdom.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Asian leaders see Trump as a 'very weak' president

"The evaluation of Trump, which certainly I get from a lot of Asians and speaking to Chinese people, is that actually they see Trump as a very weak President," Jonathan Fenby, China Chairman at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Macron actually getting things done

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, says that French President Emmanuel Macron has "got to deliver at home in order to show the Germans that he's serious."

01 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone economy grows at fastest pace since debt crisis

“Growth has not been concentrated in the traditional hotspots and economies that have traditionally not done so well are also joining in the recovery” says Ken Wattret, Managing Director of Global Macroeconomics at TS Lombard.

01 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow approaches 22,000, closes at a record high

"Figures on employment and capital spending over the coming month will give us a better sense of what second-quarter profits really mean - beyond whether they beat Wall Street estimates, a dubious distinction at best," Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard,

26 Jul 2017 - Citywire

Ambitious 'J-nomics' will take time to deliver: analysts

‘It’s a very ambitious plan and president Moon doesn’t have a majority [in the parliament] so as with the supplementary budget, which took some time for him to pass, implementation won’t be smooth sailing,’ Konstantinos Venetis, Senior Economist at TS Lombard told Citywire Asia.

26 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Stocks are ignoring U.S. political uncertainty, but the dollar isn’t

“After six months of Trump, stocks are being made great again, but Russiagate is weighing on the dollar and yields,” wrote Oliver Brennan, Senior Macro Strategist at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Gold settles lower, ending 6-session streak of gains

The committee’s Wednesday communication is not expected to convey new policy directives but it may relay a shift in how current economic data fit into the Fed’s view of the world,” said Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. economist and Managing Director of Global Macro investing, at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Zloty at risk of lingering political angst, say analysts

Poland’s economic fundamentals remained strong but the reactions of rating agencies this autumn to any further changes to the country’s institutions “will be worth watching”.

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Uberfication

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that the shifts involved in the rise of the sharing economy could be more important. The rise of the sharing economy is not just about hip millennials; it is also linked to despair in the Rust Belt, and it will complicate the job of monetary policy well into the future.

20 Jul 2017 - The Epoch Times

The ‘Silk Road’ Verdict

Why China's massive infrastructure plan won't measure up to economic reality. While a new airport or railway can be built in just a few years, amassing the human and institutional capital needed for them to operate efficiently and contribute to economic and social progress is a slower process,

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

U.S. labor market strengthening; mid-Atlantic manufacturing slows

Barring a collapse in general confidence, capital spending plans should start turning into actual expenditure in the coming months," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB expected to dial back on hawkish Sintra comments

ECB president Mario Draghi is expected to dial back on his hawkish comments from Sintra, says Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB sends a dovish message but markets don't buy it

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, agreed that the tapering could be expected at an average pace of $10 billion per meeting, which would enable its completion in the third quarter of next year.

20 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Strong Eurozone Growth Shows Payoff of ECB Stimulus

Data to be released over the coming weeks - including second-quarter growth figures on Aug. 16 - are likely to be “remarkable,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London. “The news flow will be a strong reinforcement of the case that something needs to be done” by the ECB, Mr. Wattret said.

19 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

‘Cold feet’: Euro dips from 14-month high ahead of ECB meeting

Draghi knows he will be deluged with questions about his references to ‘reflation’, what motivated them and what they imply for policy so he should be well prepared. Still, we do not expect to hear anything in the statement or the Q&A which fundamentally challenges the view that a tapering announcement is drawing near.

14 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Consumers aren’t spending, and surging rent might be to blame

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist for TS Lombard, shows that as of early 2017, wage income as a share of rent is at an all-time high. 

12 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

Lombard's Blitz Sees Fed Chasing Labor Market Fantasy

TS Lombard's Chief US Economist Steve Blitz weighs inon Fed policy. He speaks on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

10 Jul 2017 - Pulse News

Bank of Japan staying the lonely course

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: Like other major central banks, the BoJ has recently bumped up its growth forecasts and lowered its inflation estimates for this year and next. But while his peers at the Fed and (slowly but surely) the ECB have embarked on the path of policy normalisation, Governor Kuroda is nowhere near that point. 

08 Jul 2017 - Reuters

As Qatar row smolders, world markets tot up dependence on Gulf petrodollars

"One should expect Gulf governments to sell liquid assets when they have to. I am sure the Qataris will be moving some of their less liquid assets into more liquid ones as a form of insurance, i.e. real estate into equities," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East economist at consultancy TS Lombard.

07 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

No bad news in the Trump June jobs report

“June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Reuters

U.S. job growth accelerates in June, wages continue to lag

"Wage inflation was never going to be a 2017 event. You get paid this year based on how your firm did last year and last year was a slow year for GDP and, more importantly, earnings," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. "Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries to push up the averages."

07 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

U.S. adds 222,000 jobs in June hiring surge

Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries, wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the June Jobs Report: ‘Doing Well Enough’

"June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard.

06 Jul 2017

ECB Considered Dropping a QE Guarantee at June Meeting

Minutes indicate central bank policy makers’ increasing confidence in the eurozone economy: "It’s evolution, not revolution, but the direction of travel is clear,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

27 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

The Draghi Effect: Reflation focus boosts the euro, hits bonds

Analyst Ken Wattret at TS Lombard said: The comments look a bit more balanced than the market reaction would suggest, with the core inflation criteria not yet achieved. Still, use of the term ‘reflationary’ has probably captured the markets’ attention and rightly shaken out some of the complacency.

26 Jun 2017 - CNBC

This is why the ECB purchases corporate bonds

These 'non-standard policies' have helped reduce sovereign and credit risk, curtail funding fragmentation, improve liquidity and increase asset prices. One of the most powerful channels through which QE has worked is a weaker currency, which has boosted the competitiveness of the euro zone," Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC

21 Jun 2017 - The Telegraph

China stocks go mainstream with long-awaited entry into MSCI indices

Michelle Lam, a Hong Kong-based senior economist for TS Lombard, said for now the decision represented more of a "stick and carrot process" for China, which is growing at at least 5pc a year. "It's not going to be a game changer in the near term," she said, reiterating that the 'carrot' in this instance is more inclusion if China follows through with reforms and changes.

21 Jun 2017 - Citywire

Household debt raises risks for Aussie banks

‘In Australia, it hasn’t been a rosy picture since the mining boom went bust. Wages are growing at a slow pace and consumption is being funded increasingly through savings. So the buffer consumers have to finance their mortgages is much, much smaller,’ Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard said in an interview.

19 Jun 2017 - Newsweek

Putin could 'crack' NATO under Trump

Russia is already drawing a wedge between America and its closest NATO allies in other ways. Germany and the European Union have been disturbed by new congressional sanctions against Russia for interfering in the 2016 election, according to Jonathan Fenby, managing director of European political research at the investment research firm TS Lombard. Russian energy companies building the Nord Stream 2 gas export pipeline to Europe, however, are targeted in the new sanctions bill. This is “the latest of a series of developments that augur ill for trans-Atlantic relations,” wrote Fenby in a research letter to investors Sunday. “Germany and Austria, whose companies are investing in the pipeline, criticized the Senate vote for adding a ‘new and very negative quality in European-American relations.’” Fenby said. The new sanctions are just “another brick in the wall of European reaction to Trump’s criticism of European defence spending,” Fenby wrote.

16 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: another clash

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that Janet Yellen of the Fed is chasing a “great white whale” in fighting inflation, when there is little evidence that it exists. He points out that inflation tends to follow increases in real spending, which at present seems to be flat. 

16 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Market is Underestimating Potential ECB Tightening

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the Fed’s May interest rate rise and Europe’s improving economy, with more construction spending in Germany. When it comes to Britain’s exit from the European Union, he tells Daybreak Europe’s Caroline Hepker and Markus Karlsson he is skeptical about the stance of U.K. negotiators who seem to think they can dictate the terms of Brexit.

14 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Russian shares near 1-year low on US sanctions risk, oil, rouble

"The latest oil price action is ominous for Russian equities and the rouble's de-coupling from oil compounds the blow for Russian oil stocks," Christopher Granville at TS Lombard wrote, predicting the pace of Russian rate cuts to slow to 25 bps. Rouble strength means investors should be overweight on retail-oriented domestic stocks while selling export-oriented ones, especially those in oil and gas.

12 Jun 2017 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Tough change of course

The ECB will be confronted with increasing technical problems and shortcomings. Shweta Singh from TS Lombard points to the declining supply of securities still obtainable under the existing rules. This is mainly the case with federal bonds, since Germany does not make any new debts. The extent to which the euro system has reached the maximum share of debt issued by a state can not be determined exactly. Singh, however, like Picard's Frederik Ducrozet, is convinced that the Euro system will not be able to continue its purchases without changing the rules for a long time.

09 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Wall St higher as investors shrug off UK election impact

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard in New York, said: "The UK election is a UK event and there is no direct economic impact from that on the U.S. economy. Investors are more concerned about Trump and the perception of what he can and can't get passed legislatively in regards to tax reform. The last thing the Republicans want to do is head to the mid-term election in 2018 without any major legislative accomplishments."

08 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

ECB Doesn’t have Credibility But Buying Power

What the ECB lacks in credibility it makes up for in tremendous buying power, says Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. He also told Daybreak Europe’s Anna Edwards and Guy Johson that he is not surprised that the BOJ is looking to exit its monetary policy.

08 Jun 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Drops Reference to Future Interest-Rate Cut

The size of the ECB’s stimulus “looks increasingly out of line with the economic backdrop,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

05 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone recovery becomes surprise economic story of 2017

Economists say the fall in May’s inflation rate to 1.4 per cent, from 1.9 per cent in April, removed any immediate pressure on the ECB to act. Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard said: “The traditional relationships between growth and inflation seems to have broken down. I can imagine the ECB sounding a little more confident on growth... but on the inflation side they will sound pretty cautious.”

02 Jun 2017 - Pulse News

OPEC back to square one

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: The oil market has come under strain over the last few weeks, with selling pressure intensifying in May amid a spike in volatility. Earlier this month crude prices dropped to the bottom of their six-month range, erasing virtually all the gains recorded since OPEC’s Vienna deal, before stabilising around $50. What is the broader macro message from this price action? Why now? And what comes next? 

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