Press

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18 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Remains Hidden as Government Pursues $100 Billion

“Personal wealth is extremely private there,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London. “It’s no one’s business." “In most societies, wealth gets exposed because people want to expose who’s behind it,” said TS Lombard’s Chenevix. “But if the politicians are the wealthy, if wealth and power are the same thing, that political pressure doesn’t exist.”

17 Jan 2018 - Reuters

Euro surge threatens profitable bond trades

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard estimates, that Japanese investors can get a yield pick up of 25 basis points for German bunds, 52 basis points for French debt and 165 basis points for Italian bonds respectively. “That is far more than what investing in Japanese bonds can give them,” Cicione said. Ten-year yields in Japan JP10YT=RR were trading around 9 basis points on Wednesday.

17 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Charles Dumas Says the ECB Is in a Very Difficult Position

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses monetary policy from the European Central Bank. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

17 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Saudi Arabia pumps $2 billion into Yemen’s central bank

The move is an attempt to set up a "functioning and legitimate" Yemeni government, Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC in a phone interview Wednesday. Chevenix added that while he anticipated the deposit to be a one-off in terms of its "very large" size, Yemen could expect "continued support" from Riyadh in the future

16 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Why 2018 will not be another perfect year for stocks

Companies can also spend to cut costs, which many have avoided since the financial crisis. But the U.S. tax overhaul could be the trigger. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist of TS Lombard, believes margins will hold together as companies faced with wage pressure will spend on investment. Capital expenditure (capex) these days, often means buying equipment for automation, reducing the need for as many workers, removing higher wage demands. The President Donald Trump administration has another view that the tax bill will simply create "jobs, jobs, jobs."

16 Jan 2018 - CNBC

France’s Macron ‘the man to watch’ in Davos for clues on where Europe is headed

TS Lombard's Fenby noted Macron's "ambitious plans" to reform Europe and the euro zone, but said domestic politics and reforms were at the top of Macron's agenda. "Macron's main priority is, of course, at home where he has set a three-year horizon for reform to have its impact," he said. "He started with the labor laws but now moves into the trickier matter of cutting the budget deficit. He sensibly puts stress on job training to cut unemployment." "Macron has often been accused of being the typical 'Davos man,' so this is his opportunity to show how he is using the positive international press to attract investment and improve the lives of those who perhaps didn't vote for him," Fenby said.

16 Jan 2018 - Financial News

Five big currency bets hedge funds will make in 2018

“A year ago, [quantitative easing] was the major driver of asset markets, but now its influence is beginning to diminish other macro drivers will come to the fore. This means divergence and volatility will rise, which is good for hedge funds,” said Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard. He added that he expected hedge funds to trade more currencies this year.

11 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Why falling bond prices are traditionally seen as bad for stocks

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC Wednesday: "Rising yields, if they are accompanied by an accelerating economy, an accelerating income and stronger employment, they are not necessarily going to cut off mortgages and cut off growth." In his eyes, as long as the economy keeps growing, companies will have money to pay their employees and invest. Thus, the stock market shouldn't necessarily worry too much with how yields are moving.

11 Jan 2018 - Squawk Box CNBC

TS Lombard: Global financing conditions to remain supportive

Global liquidity will remain "substantially abundant" even as central banks tighten their policy, Shweta Singh, director of global macro at TS Lombard, said.

10 Jan 2018 - CNBC

2018 should be another happy year for US stocks

The rise of U.S. equities has coincided with increased household net worth and the “rise of the millennials,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said.

10 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Fed will follow the economy, economist says

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. economy and government bonds.

08 Jan 2018 - CNBC

If you believe in the government, Chinese consumer stocks will do well this year: TS Lombard

Chinese consumer stocks should do "really well" in 2018, Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Tuesday.

08 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Economists still gloomy on post-Brexit economy

Charles Dumas, chief economist, TS Lombard: Feel about the same as 12 months ago. Both sides of the Leave/Remain argument grossly exaggerate the long-term difference.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard: More optimistic than 12 months ago. With a transitional deal increasingly likely the UK can at least avoid “falling off the cliff edge” and avoid reverting to WTO rules. The agreement between the UK and the EU on the Irish border and parliament’s vote to demand a meaningful vote on Brexit terms also point to [a] rising likelihood of a “softer” Brexit outcome.

06 Jan 2018 - MarketWatch

Is inflation ever coming back?

“Wages and prices generally lag real growth. Sustained real growth in 2018 should consequently shift wages to a higher trajectory,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for T.S. Lombard, after December’s rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee. “Wages could in fact accelerate more quickly than markets are pricing in, considering how the economy is picking up with labor-market supply at its tightest point for this cycle. The prospect of a quick upturn in wages is reason enough for [an increase in the federal funds rate], even though measured inflation remains low.”

05 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

A major S&P ratio has a whiff of 1929. Is this a bubble yet?

The fear of missing out will be especially potent in keeping the momentum going. In a study of S&P 500 peaks from 1929 to 2007, TS Lombard showed that market returns tend to accelerate in the six months before the market rolls over. Missing out on the last year of each bull market would have cost investors on average 20 per cent of gains.

04 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Minite Mystery Continues

Yesterday’s Fed minute release triggered a discussion about whether or not inflation is the main driver of whether the Fed raises and how fast says Steven Blitz, Chief US economist at TS Lombard. However, he told Daybreak Europe’s Guy Johnson and Anna Edwards that what markets should really be focusing on is the debate on hiking attributable to financial stability. He added that the role of power politics within the FOMC, once Yellen departs, adds to the mystery of Fed trajectory in the coming year.

04 Jan 2018 - The Guardian

Dow and FTSE hit record highs as global stock market surges continue

The chief risk for this year could also be a “melt-up,” according to economists at TS Lombard, who warn shares may rise out of kilter with reality before a sharp meltdown.

04 Jan 2018 - The Telegraph

U.S. growth and the 'euroboom' are catalysts for global upswing

Shweta Singh, head of global macro at TS Lombard, calls it a “euroboom” and points to strong surveys that indicate “its super-charged economic expansion [is] gaining further momentum”. “The broad-based strength reinforces our view that eurozone expansion is broadening out in terms of the growth drivers and that it bodes well for the sustainability and strength of economic expansion,” she says. “The recovery is spreading out geographically as well, reaching to the erstwhile weaker economies.”

03 Jan 2018 - Nikkei Asian Review

Will China suffer an economic shock in 2018?

The challenge is not short-term turmoil but the long-term costs of Xi's authoritarianism says Jonathan Fenby, Chairman China Team at TS Lombard.

03 Jan 2018 - Middle East Eye

US jury finds Turkish banker guilty of helping Iran dodge sanctions

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to avoid the Turkish lira and possibly depress the country's currency even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a MENA and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London

03 Jan 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Upstart Parties Write New Political Playbook in Europe

With a grand coalition, “the perception would be very ugly. When they inevitably do things you disapprove of, where do you go?” says Constantine Fraser, political analyst with TS Lombard. “If the mainstream parties are partners in the same government, opposition will go to the populists.”

02 Jan 2018 - The Telegraph

Can the global economic recovery be sustained?

Shweta Singh, head of global macro at TS Lombard, calls it a “euroboom” and points to strong surveys that indicate “its super-charged economic expansion [is] gaining further momentum”. “The broad-based strength reinforces our view that eurozone expansion is broadening out in terms of the growth drivers and that it bodes well for the sustainability and strength of economic expansion,” she says. “The recovery is spreading out geographically as well, reaching to the erstwhile weaker economies.”

02 Jan 2018 - CNBC

TS Lombard: Robust global growth softening China’s slowdown

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his economic outlook for the country in 2018.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Gloomy growth projections cloud hopes for UK economy

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, TS Lombard About 1.5 per cent, vs. US and EA both 2-2.5 per cent. The UK needed to rebalance after the 6 per cent-of-GDP current account blowout under George Osborne, and the Brexit vote secured the necessary devaluation, cutting real consumer incomes and thus spending; but Brexit uncertainties are also inhibiting the capex response to the stronger competitiveness and profitability.
Michelle Lam, Senior Economist, TS Lombard I expect the UK to grow at 1.6 per cent in 2018. That is a tad faster than 2017, but still slower than the euro area and the US. Strong global growth, slower pace of austerity and an end to real income squeeze are reasons why I think growth of the UK economy will hold up next year.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

UK wage growth expected to increase but to remain modest

Charles Dumas, chief economist, TS Lombard We expect wage inflation to reach 3 per cent by end-2018, a mild acceleration in nominal terms, rather more in real terms. This assumes either a continued subdued public mood about Brexit or restrictive interest rate action by the Bank of England sooner than expected.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard I expect British workers will get a pay rise of 3 per cent in 2018. It is true that the relationship of wage inflation and unemployment (also known as the Phillips curve) has become less apparent due to globalisation and technological advancement. But I believe demand for hiring could remain rather resilient as firms hope to substitute labour for capital due to Brexit uncertainty. Meanwhile, slower migration from the EU, either due to Brexit or sterling depreciation, would keep the labour market tight. These factors should keep wage growth on a modest uptrend next year.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Economists divided over prospects of UK interest rate rise

There are also some indications that wage growth is picking up following a fall in unemployment to a 42-year low of 4.3 per cent: “As long as wage growth is improving, policy normalisation is the right thing to do,” said Michelle Lam of TS Lombard.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard I expect the BoE to hike once in next year, probably in August. If wage growth quickens faster than expected, say to 3 per cent in spring 2018, and holds up, the BoE could even raise interest rates twice, beginning from May. As long as wage growth is improving, policy normalisation is the right thing to do. The benefits of keeping policy loose are probably fairly limited. Right now, businesses are holding up capital expenditure because of Brexit uncertainty, not because of tight credit conditions or costs of financing.

 

28 Dec 2017 - IG Group

Are central banks following the wrong policy and is this a risk for 2018?

The world’s major central banks are pursuing the wrong policy and the obsession with a 2% inflation target is a mistake, according to Charles Dumas, TS Lombard chief economist. He tells IGTV that this could have repercussions in the years to come.

26 Dec 2017 - South China Morning Post

Why 2018 could be the year of the euro

The euro zone is experiencing a “super-charged economic expansion,” wrote Shweta Singh, director of global macro at London-based TS Lombard in mid-December. That expansion surely owes much to the ECB’s continuing attempts to kick-start inflation via its adherence to ultra-accommodative monetary policy settings. The flash euro zone composite purchasing managers’ index has “surged to 58.0, the highest since 2011,” TS Lombard wrote, with the manufacturing sector “leading the bounce, strengthening to 60.1 which is the most optimistic reading on record.” With the good economic news from the euro zone seemingly broad-based, why wouldn’t investors want a piece of that euro-denominated action?

26 Dec 2017 - CGTN

Multiple factors rally US stock markets in 2017

“Europe is turning, the emerging markets are turning, and a larger percentage of S&P revenue comes from global sources as opposed to say 10, 15, certainly 20, 25 years ago,” Steven Blitz, Chief Economist at TS Lombard said.

22 Dec 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Could the Capex fit?

Steven Blitz of TS Lombard points out that growth in the sales that companies generate per employee has been becalmed, almost totally static, throughout the post-crisis recovery.

22 Dec 2017 - Citywire

Foreign investors sceptical about Indian equities

‘The developments in China probably had some impact on this, as well as the domestic situation in India,’ said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging market macro strategy at research firm TS Lombard. ‘Up until the middle of the year, India and China were moving in sync in a very positive emerging market sentiment globally. But from mid-year we had two things - GST implementation in India and in China, there was a strong improvement in global sentiment.’
However, TS Lombard’s director India research, Shumita Deveshwar, is optimistic on the market for next year despite political risks in the last year of Modi’s first term and the potential for oil prices to rear their ugly head. ‘These have been painful adjustments but the government has gone ahead and done them. That's why the mood is upbeat because maybe the government is going to do further reforms, especially if Modi gets re-elected in 2019,’ she said.

20 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Power, rivalry and missiles: The dangers of Saudi Arabia and Iran's 'unpredictable' conflict in Yemen

This is “the first time in a very long time” that there hasn’t been an “external arbiter in the Middle East” defining diplomatic relationships, Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, said.

20 Dec 2017 - Financial Times Shortview

Krona losing appeal as ‘carry trade’ currency

Oliver Brennan, at TS Lombard, thinks that the franc is more or less at its fundamental fair value. The yen and the krona are still below their fair value, deliberately weakened by central banks attempting to stave off deflation.

17 Dec 2017 - Neue Zürcher Zeitung

The normalization of monetary policy and its consequences

How long could the central banks, in particular the ECB, still control the development, asks Charles Dumas of TS Lombard. The true aim of the ECB's monetary policy is the exchange rate. But now the economy of the euro zone has developed so strongly and the foreign trade surplus has become so large that the central bank can do little against an appreciation of the euro. If it continues the excessively loose monetary policy, the euro zone's economy and foreign trade surplus continue to grow. But if it removes the stimulus, the bond yields rise. In both cases, the result is a higher euro exchange rate.

16 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Business investment on hot streak since Trump elected — and it may keep sizzling

“I think you are going to see more of an increase in capital spending for businesses,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

15 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Millennials spark shopping revolution that’s creating new winners, losers in retail land

The influence of millennials has been especially pronounced in the retail business. “Their fingerprints are increasingly everywhere,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard. “Millennials are the first generation in which internet shopping is ingrained in their DNA,” said Blitz, who’s been tracking the spending of baby boomers and millennials.  “The 32-year-old is the more aggressive acquire of assets,” Blitz noted. “They are filling up their closets. Baby boomers are emptying theirs.” Blitz says spending on discretionary goods — the things people want to buy — clearly show the shift under way. As millennials become a bigger part of the workforce, sales have risen for restaurants, sporting goods, books, hobby items and home furnishings, among other things. He counsels investors to put their money into the areas where “the wallet share is going.”

14 Dec 2017 - FastFT

Charts of the Year: Farewell to the world of one trade?

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, notes that correlations between markets accounted for less than half of the variability in developed-market bonds before quantitative easing began. The figure rose above 70 per cent this year. With QE poised to reach a tipping point late next year, Mr Brennan echoes many other investors and observers with his concern that bond-market volatility could resurface. Good news if you like break-out trading themes. Less good if you like dull predictability.

13 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Why Donald Trump's Jerusalem move might have made Russia a lot stronger

Putin has established Russia as perhaps the single-most important external actor in the Middle East," Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Wednesday. Granville agreed that Russia could assert itself as a key player in a regional peace process, although tensions are running so high between Israel and Palestine, let alone the wider Islamic world, that the process looks unlikely to see progress any time soon. "Russia is certainly better positioned to have constructive contacts with different countries and players on both sides of the barricades… wheras the U.S. has cast in its lot — lock, stock and barrel — with one side, broadly that of Saudi Arabia and Israel," he said. Granville said that while Russia was in a good position to deal with all parties involved, it might not want the difficult role of peacemaker, or "honest broker," in peace talks. "Russia is better placed to deal with everyone — although the role of an 'honest broker' in the peace process is an invidious and somewhat doomed role," he said.

13 Dec 2017 - Middle East Eye

Turkish police summon FBI official over US trial

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to avoid the Turkish lira and possibly depress the country's currency even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East, North African and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London.

12 Dec 2017 - South China Morning Post

The tide of US dollar funding may return in 2018, but at higher cost than previously

Oliver Brennan, Macro Strategist at TS Lombard in London, wrote that the “year-end turn has clearly increased Europeans’ demand for dollars,” but cautioned that “there are structural factors which mean the squeeze can be painful and that the basis swap may not bounce back all the way.” So a rising tide of US dollar liquidity might return in 2018, but access to that liquidity pool could be more expensive than previously. One of the structural factors highlighted by TS Lombard is the introduction in January of rules under the Basel III regulations that urge banks to hold collateral “against [over-the-counter] transactions including FX swaps [which] will on average increase the cost of FX swaps and therefore widen the euro basis.”

11 Dec 2017 - IG Group

TS Lombard: Another German Election Would Not Worry Markets

While Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is still seeking to form a coalition government, TS Lombard analyst, Constantine Fraser, says markets would take a minority government, or even a new election, in their stride.

09 Dec 2017 - Al Jazeera

Oman moves closer to a post-oil economy

Education is a critical part of this equation, as many citizens lack the type of technical knowledge needed to kick-start certain industries, noted Marcus Chenevix, a MENA analyst with the London-based economics consultancy TS Lombard. "Oman has a great deal of potential to diversify, probably in many ways more than its neighbours, especially in terms of tourism and in terms of the natural resources that Oman has available - things like access to an enormous fishery," he told Al Jazeera. However, the focus on areas such as manufacturing may be problematic, as the country "has no real institutional memory of having that kind of industry and it's very hard to develop that from scratch", Chenevix said.

07 Dec 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Why Merkel is a victim of her own success

Constantine Fraser, European political research analyst at TS Lombard, speaks about ongoing attempts to form the next German coalition government.

07 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Household wealth climbs $1.7 trillion on stock market, house price advances

“That the lion’s share of the gains boosting household net worth were in equities, and financial assets more generally, rather than in real estate is another reason why leverage remains low. Households historically borrow more off of improved home values than rising wealth from stocks and bonds – at least before 2008,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

07 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Stocks close higher; tech notches 3-day winning streak

"The House tax plan looks like a plan to us; the Senate version looks more like an agglomeration of bits and pieces designed to either capture needed votes (which it did) and/or be bargaining chips in negotiating with the House," Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard said in a note this week.

05 Dec 2017 - CNBC

What's next in Yemen after the assassination of former president Saleh?

Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC that with Saleh dead, Iran was likely to be able to consolidate its influence in Yemen and that the war was not likely to end any time soon. "It's generally bad news for Yemen and probably good news for Iran," he said Tuesday. "I think we'll see the step-up of Iranian involvement in Yemen now and it will become very intense." TS Lombard's Chenevix said that Saudi Arabia could step up its bombing campaign against the Houthis but that Saleh's death, ultimately, had helped Iran because it simplified "the anti-Hadi cause" represented by Houthi rebels, taking away the forces loyal to Saleh. "Now that Saleh is temporarily out of the picture, unless we see his son try to come back (as Saleh's successor), the Iranian proxy is now the only opposition to Hadi. They are the sole patron to the anti-Hadi government," Chenevix said. "Saleh's death now pushes Houthi rebels into needing more Iranian support too," he added.

04 Dec 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Why Central Banks Continue to Put Asset Prices Out of Whack

Meanwhile, central-bank policy elsewhere, particularly in Japan, is in the mix. Since the Bank of Japan is holding yields down, Japanese investors need to look elsewhere for returns. But the cost to hedge against moves in the dollar has risen, making U.S. bonds less attractive, notes TS Lombard. European bonds may be benefiting from Japanese purchases, holding yields down but supporting the euro.

04 Dec 2017 - The Telegraph

US tax shake-up risks a dollar shortage and a global funding shock

Steve Blitz from TS Lombard said there will not be enough fiscal stimulus to move the needle, and it is far from clear what the dollar will do given that Europe and Japan are both rebounding. Complex hedging practices in the derivatives markets suggest that the euro will strengthen against the dollar next year. The tax holiday for US companies in 2005 did lead to a 15pc rise in the dollar index (DXY) over a fifteen month period but the circumstances were very different. Mr Blitz said it was a zero-tax holiday and it was only offered for a short window of time. The Republican package today is open-ended and entails a 14pc tax. It may be a damp squib.

01 Dec 2017 - Reuters

Sterling slips from two-month high on Irish border worries

“This week’s sterling bounce on reports that the UK has accepted a higher financial divorce settlement with the EU seems based on the false assumption that the way is now clear for the European Council on 14-15 December to authorise moving on to the next phase of the Brexit process,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at investment research firm TS Lombard. “To get to that next stage (the transitional deal), however, two further agreements are required. One – on citizens’ rights – looks relatively easy. The same cannot be said of the other – on the Irish border,” he added.

01 Dec 2017 - Middle East Eye

US-Iran sanctions trial may hamper Turkey's struggling economy

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to flee the Turkish lira and possibly send the country's currency down even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East, North African and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London. "This case has the capacity to seriously damage relations between Turkey and the US," said a recent report from TS Lombard. "From a US perspective, Turkey has been working to subvert American interests by secretly doing business with an enemy and is now insulting the American Judiciary and threatening American officials."  The impact on the lira has the potential to be swift, possibly pushing it past 4 lira to the US dollar, according the Lombard report.

30 Nov 2017 - The Epoch Times

The Cracks in China’s Economy

“New restrictions on the resale of property and fading support from shantytown redevelopment will keep weighing on housing sales. This spells further downside for residential investment growth,” wrote research firm TS Lombard, in a report.

27 Nov 2017 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Stocks Mixed, Weighed Down by Energy Shares

Much of the recent selloff in Asian shares has come from companies that have already posted strong gains this year, said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, noting investors are questioning whether they are willing to pay up front for all the growth that these companies will deliver. "But we haven't seen anything for the moment that worries us," he said, noting fundamentally, the outlook for the economy and global equities remains sound and investors generally feel they can't afford to miss out on this market.

22 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Could Saudi Arabia and Iran really go to war?

Marcus Chevenix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC that Saudi Arabia's foreign policies, under the aegis of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, are hard to understand. "Domestically his (Mohammed bin Salman's) actions are radical but comprehensible, but on a foreign stage they're very hard to make sense of at all," Chevenix said. "His intervention in Yemen was rash yet we could at least see what he was trying to do. His intervention in Qatar was, yet again, maybe a little reckless maybe a little quick but it was certainly effective against Qatar. But in Lebanon it's really hard to see what this does for him at all." The analyst believes that it might have been a "reactive move" aimed at bringing down the coalition government of Lebanon to somehow destabilize the position of Hezbollah. He perceived it as a pushback against Iran by whatever means available, but suggested that war was not currently a possibility. "It's hard to see where Saudi Arabia could get to a position where its actions were intolerable to the Iranians. Iranian actions are already intolerable to Saudi Arabia, we know that, but the Saudi Arabians struggle to really find a way to aggravate Iran, that's why we're not looking at a hot war situation right now," he told CNBC.

21 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

US yield curve hits its flattest point since November 2007

Some analysts and investors are perturbed, and in a note to clients, TS Lombard said this new conundrum could have important implications for the outlook for markets in the coming year: “With the yield curve continuing to flatten, some investors are talking about the curve inverting in 2018, traditionally a leading recession signal. Others disagree, arguing we are on the brink of a dangerous 1994-style selloff. The resolution of this debate will have a powerful influence on a wide range of global asset prices.”

20 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Hard to understand Saudi crown prince's policy on Lebanon

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the intricacies of Saudi Arabia's relationship with its Middle Eastern neighbors.

20 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

The Modi magic behind India’s unstoppable rally

“There is a bit of a disconnect between what is happening on the ground and the hype being created in the markets right now,” says Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at Trusted Sources. 

18 Nov 2017 - MarketWatch

Why this U.S. recession signal is probably throwing off a false alarm

Dario Perkins, a senior economist at TS Lombard, contends the Fed has effectively outsourced control of when to raise interest rates to bond markets. If so, he argues in a new report, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates as much or as many times as the central bank has indicated. “This is an odd situation because it suggests central banks are now ‘rate takers’ rather than ‘rate setters,’ ” he wrote. Only a sharp rise in inflation itself or inflation-adjusted bond yields, he added, will force the Fed to be more aggressive.

17 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

Doubts over tax cuts leave dollar drifting lower

“Some investors are talking about the curve inverting in 2018, traditionally a leading recession signal,” said Dario Perkins at TS Lombard. “Others disagree, arguing we are on the brink of a dangerous 1994-style sell-off. The resolution of this debate will have a powerful influence on a wide range of global asset prices.”

15 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Investors re-price political risk in Middle East bond market

“This is a repricing of systemic political risk. Just as we saw with Qatar, this will not be a short-term bounce in yields, but a long-term step up to a slightly higher risk bracket,” said Marcus Chenevix, regional analyst at TS Lombard.

12 Nov 2017 - The Street

Saudi Monarch's Purge Gets Cynical Nod From Foreign Investors

"For investors who don't know Saudi Arabia so well, this news will be a rude awakening to the fact that Saudi politics are actually quite unstable," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at the London-based economics consultancy TS Lombard. "But for investors who know the kingdom well, they'll see this as a positive sign for long-term reform." Those arrested, according to TS Lombard's Chenevix, primarily hail from the city of Jeddah on the Red Sea, a rival commercial and power center to the central capital of Riyadh. Prince Mohammed announced last month that the country planned to spend $500 billion -- roughly equivalent to Sweden's gross national product -- to erect a brand-new mega-city on the Red Sea.

09 Nov 2017 - Bloomberg Businessweek

How the ‘Warren Buffett of Arabia’ Built His Fortune

Demanding and conscious of appearances—including his standing on global rich lists—Alwaleed has had “something of a mixed reputation” outside the kingdom, says Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London. “International investors see him as a man who talks a very big game and sometimes performed, but often didn’t,” he says. 

07 Nov 2017 - Expansion

The Ibex is the cheapest European Stock Exchange

TS Lombard, one of the leading independent analysis houses in the City, has been located on the first of these sides. In a note to investors, he recommends investors to bet on Spain, hoping that a next solution to the Catalan debate will allow Spanish parquet to gain ground lost during the last months in front of other places. TS Lombard predicts a strong rise until the end of the year of the Ibex 35, recovering the 13% that has been left in front of the Italian Stock Exchange since the summer. TS Lombard predicts that the Spanish index will reach 11,500 points, from the current 10,300 points.

"The Ibex is the cheapest exchange in the euro zone," says Oliver Brennan, market analyst at TS Lombard. The PER (number of times the price of the listed companies contains annual profits) is among the lowest in the developed countries, according to the report. "The weakness of recent months was caused by falls in six stocks, mainly banks, and is likely to recover now thanks to greater political clarity."

07 Nov 2017 - The Washington Post

Here’s what the Saudi royal purge means for investors

“The price of oil is spiking because of market dynamics, not because people are genuinely worried about the stability of Saudi Arabia,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst with TS Lombard. “What this is, is a turn back to absolute rule by one man and away from rule by princes. That is not such a bad idea. In an absolute monarchy that does not have constitutionally guaranteed rights, it is better for our business clients. There is a single ruler making single rules rather than answering to a whole class of princes.”

Chenevix, the TS Lombard analyst, said the corruption crackdown will definitely affect investment. “As we saw with the Qatar crisis, as the controversy comes to the surface, investors will realize the political risk of the Gulf coast states,” he said. Last summer, several counties including Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed trade and travel bans, alleging that Qatar was a supporter of terrorism. Chenevix said fixed-income investors will see a decline in Saudi bonds. “Your fixed-income assets in Saudi Arabia will be worth less,” he said, “because basically they have been underpricing political risk.”

06 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Saudi stocks hit by political purge, Gulf feels the chill

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard called Alwaleed bin Talal’s arrest “hugely concerning”. “What it tells investors is that Saudi politics can’t be ignored. And that’s worrying because Saudi politics is a black box,” he said

06 Nov 2017 - Bloomberg

Spain’s Economy Wobbles as Catalonia Uncertainty Takes a Toll

Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London, said “political hullaballoo over Catalonia has taken its toll,” and the softer services activity tallies with reports about a “sharp drop in tourist-related activity.” 

06 Nov 2017 - BBC Business News

Saudi billionaire Alwaleed's arrest rattles investors

Investors are "extremely concerned by the weekend's events and we'll see further falls on Kingdom Holding in particular as it's very hard to define what the company is without Prince Alwaleed," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at TS Lombard.

06 Nov 2017 - Evening Standard

Three signs that markets are heading for a fall

Charles Dumas at TS Lombard asked this question: “With the S&P at 2580, which is more likely over the next 12 months: 3000 or 2160?” His answer was that there are at least three reasons in the short term why the risk of prices heading upwards to form a bubble were greater the downside bear risk of prices collapsing. One was that the world economy was strong, with Europe now adding to demand from the US and China to generate synchronised growth for the first time this century. The second was that commentators were, on the whole, still defensive, advancing reasons for the market to sell off despite there being buying power from investors. And the third was that the combination of very low underlying inflation rates in the US, Europe and Japan, coupled with central banks’ desire to push inflation to 2% was likely to brew a bubble.

06 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Reform or risk? Saudi Arabia investors try to read the runes

“This is about political instability, not about corruption,” said Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, adding the arrest of Prince Alwaleed was “hugely concerning”. “What it tells investors is that Saudi politics can’t be ignored. And that’s worrying because Saudi politics is a black box.”

06 Nov 2017 - South China Morning Post

Why the Fed is likely to raise interest rates faster than you think

TS Lombard’s US Watch, penned on October 29 by their chief US economist Stephen Blitz and their head of strategy, Andrea Cicione, gave an evaluation of the direction of the US economy that should lead the Fed to “raise policy rates in December, March and June” pushing the Fed funds rate to 2 per cent.

06 Nov 2017 - Al Jazeera

Why Saudi arrests are long-term positive but seriously raise short-term risk

Marcus Chenevix, MENA Analyst, on why Saudi arrests are long-term positive but seriously raise short-term risk. (starting at 3.30min)

02 Nov 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Stocks Indexes Close Largely Unchanged After Tax Plan Is Unveiled

“A lot of what’s in this plan are bargaining positions; we have to see how the final bill morphs as time goes forward,” Steven Blitz, chief United States economist with TS Lombard, said. “There’s a lot of horse trading to come, so an overreaction doesn’t make a lot of sense.”

02 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Dow closes at record high in wild session after release of tax reform bill, Powell nomination

"Nothing is easy, however, and there is still tension over what tax provisions can be limited or eliminated to offset aggressive cuts in marginal corporate and personal rates. A balance will need to be struck," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note.

02 Nov 2017 - Middle East Eye

Oil giant Total questions Saudi reform drive

Any significant upward move in production could bring the prices even further down, according to a recent report from TS Lombard. “They can’t get any more money from oil,” said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at TS Lombard in London, in August. “Saudi is stuck with regard to oil production.”

01 Nov 2017 - The Independent

Although it might not feel like it, we're experiencing a global financial boom – and the bubble is due to burst soon

A survey of US investors last month showed that more than 60 per cent expected shares to be higher in a year’s time than they are now. A new paper by Charles Dumas at TS Lombard explains why. His argument is that there are three big drivers that make the upside more likely than the down. First there is the synchronised recovery noted above. Second, while most commentators are warning about a fall, investors have buying power – and had they listened to the warnings they would have lost out on a 25 per cent rise in share prices over the past two years. Third, the underlying inflation rate in the US, Europe and Japan is still very low. So the central bank commitment to pushing inflation up to 2 per cent will keep them pumping out the money that will fuel the boom.

01 Nov 2017 - Reuters

U.S. factory activity index eases off 13-1/2-year high

“Hiring is strong and evidence continues to accumulate that the economy is beginning to gain momentum heading into year-end,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

01 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: FOMZzzzzzzz

This comment from TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz captures the mood well: The nation’s growth rate has been upgraded to “solid” from moderate, underpinned by sustained “moderate” growth in household spending and acknowledgement again that business capex “has picked up”. This same phrase was used six weeks ago. Does this mean capex has picked up further? Based on the data, we would say yes. What then holds the Fed (Yellen) back with policy rates still set below core inflation? Simply put “. . . inflation for items other than food and energy remained soft. On a 12-month basis, both inflation measures have declined this year and are running below 2 percent.”  What then to make of all this? We knew going in the Fed wasn’t going to do anything, so no disappointment there. The upgrading of growth indicates to us that the Fed goes in December. Beyond that, the Yellen doctrine (holding back policy rates while waiting for inflation to rise even though its natural rate appears to be well below 2%) has all the markings of the same mistake Bernanke made in the last cycle – namely ignoring asset inflation because price inflation was well behaved. We could get more exercised about this if Yellen was going to continue as Fed Chair. She isn’t. For all intent and purposes, this makes the statement more swan song than road map -- especially if its Powell and therefore sitting in the room when the next couple of statements are crafted. Fed goes in December, March and June.

31 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Dumas Says China Growth Has Been Above Trend

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, and Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, discuss economic data from China and overall outlook for the country. They speak with Nejra Cehic on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Economist Dumas Questions Brexit's Market Significance

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the market significance of Brexit. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 Oct 2017 - MarketWatch

Why the stock-market rally may be entering the anxiety-driven stage

For institutional investors, “missing the upside…could anger boards and trustees,” wrote Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, in a note titled, “S&P 3,000?—a big upside for the big ‘risk.’”

31 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Jerome? OK, Jerome

John Authers’ Note today gives Charles Dumas credit for his brave and timely stock market call in March 2009 and highlights his bullish call on US stocks now.

"Charles Dumas of TS Lombard has a reputation as a contrarian, and as something of a bearish curmudgeon. But on Tuesday he produced a note clearly stating that he saw more risk of a bullish "melt-up" than of an imminent bear market. Headline: S&P 3,000 - a big upside the big 'risk'."

31 Oct 2017 - Channel News Asia

Trump to announce Fed choice on Thursday: US official Read more at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/videos/trump-to-announce-fed-choice-on-thursday-us-official-9362728

US President Donald Trump is expected to announce his choice to lead the Federal Reserve on Thursday, a US official said on Monday (Oct 30). 

27 Oct 2017 - MarketWatch

GDP grows at stronger-than-forecast 3% rate in third quarter

“If the point of looking at Q3 data is to confirm whether the Fed is on track for a series of quarterly 25bp increases in policy rates, consider the point was made,” added Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

26 Oct 2017 - Citywire Asia

Financial reforms in China unlikely

China’s financial reforms are unlikely to be a priority in President Xi Jinping’s second five-year term, says London-based TS Lombard. The research firm noted in its latest China Watch report that despite the Chinese central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan’s call for a more market-oriented economy, China’s top leadership has learnt the lessons from poor execution of financial reforms back in 2015, which resulted in the country’s equity bubble burst. Chief emerging markets (EM) economist Lawrence Brainard said, ‘This has convinced China’s top leadership that more, not fewer, controls are needed at present.’

26 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg

ECB Slows Asset Purchases as Draghi Heads for Stimulus Exit

“The door is left open to extend the asset-purchase program yet again,” said Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “Though the likelihood of this happening for a fourth time looks rather lower now for various reasons, including the positive economic outlook.”

25 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

European Central Bank divided over wisdom of declaring end to QE

“The closer the ECB gets to stopping QE altogether, the more the market will focus on a rise in interest rates,” adds Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard, a research firm. “If that leads to more currency strength, as seems likely, then the downward pressure on core inflation creates a headache for the ECB.”

25 Oct 2017 - Monocle

Xi Jinping’s ambitions for himself and China's Communist party

Jonathan Fenby speaks on Monocle Radio: Are senior Republicans plotting to remove President Trump? We also discuss Xi Jinping’s ambitions for himself and China's Communist party and remember Hollywood's greatest speeches.

24 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

European Central Bank’s decision to reduce asset purchases not a true indicator of bloc’s economic health

“The longer the ECB takes to pare back its net asset purchases to zero, the further into the distance the subsequent steps in the normalisation process become”, as Ken Wattret, the managing director of global macro at investment research company TS Lombard, wrote this month.

19 Oct 2017 - Spectator

Xi Jinping is not a reformer but China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao

How the new emperor will use his second term — and perhaps a third to follow — to assert himself

19 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Making the Case for Jay Powell as Next Fed Chair

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, and Bloomberg Intelligence's Yelena Shulyatyeva discuss the race to be next Fed chair and their outlook for policy moves next year. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." 

18 Oct 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Xi’s authority likely to stretch beyond second term

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his view on Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the Communist Party Congress.

17 Oct 2017 - US News

If Precious Metals Rally, Then Pick Silver

"What has been propping up gold is geopolitics and Trump's tweets," says Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard in London.

13 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China is tackling its debt problem

According to the opinion of the economists of the research house TS Lombard, China has clearly entered a new cycle after the previous credit boom. For example, the growth of the money M2 this year has fallen below 10% for the first time in two decades. This economic-political change of times takes place against the backdrop of a stock market crash, which is only twenty months away, a massive capital inflow abroad and collapsing private investments.

11 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China's stock exchanges under the spell of politics

"The markets should eat before the party congress," a researcher from TS Lombard said. The Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have shown performances in the past few months that were among the best in the world. Thus, the Hong Kong Hang Seng has increased by 3.3% in the previous week, which is a plus of 29% since the beginning of the year.

11 Oct 2017 - Evening Standard

Anthony Hilton: Pension funds must start thinking politically

Share prices are indeed high by historic measures but, as TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins noted in a recent podcast, interest rates are also now recognised as likely to be permanently lower that they were a decade or more ago. Financial markets have adjusted to this change and the demand for higher-yielding equities has increased and would have done anyway, regardless of what central banks are doing.

09 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg

Fenby Says Rajoy Will Not Give Way to Catalonia

Jonathan Fenby, director at TS Lombard, discusses the possibility of Catalonia's independence from Spain. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

09 Oct 2017 - Le Figaro

Catalonia: crucial day on Tuesday for independence

A purely symbolic statement or a simple call for new regional elections would strengthen the government of Mariano Rajoy. "If it ignores its own referendum, the dynamics behind the Catalan independence would be dramatically dwarfed," said TS Lombard. "But ultimately, he will be forced to continue the dynamics of confrontation and escalation" in which he finds himself.

09 Oct 2017 - The Times of India

Talks or takeover? Next steps in Catalonia crisis

Without a declaration of independence, Puigdemont risks seeing "the momentum behind Catalan independence fizzle out anticlimactically as he ignores his own referendum," the TS Lombard analysts wrote.

06 Oct 2017 - CNBC

Why Italy, and not Spain, is the real risk that investors should be worrying about

"Beyond Catalonia, it is the Italian election we are concerned about," Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, told CNBC Thursday. Andrea underlined that the rising presence of populist parties is a risk for Italy's fiscal policy, given their policies to increase spending. 

05 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

Russian oligarch’s latest venture draws US$500m from CEFC’s sister company AnAn Group

“The Rosneft and EN+ deals are likely linked as a package ... it is a good opportunity for China to step up its involvement in and ownership of Russian natural resources,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, the chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners, who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

03 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

How global geopolitical forces play in a Chinese private firm’s favour in the purchase of key Russian jewel energy asset

Some analysts believe the 14 per cent stake in the world’s largest listed oil firm by output was a result of political consideration on Beijing’s part. “National oil companies had genuine concerns about getting closely involved with a company subject to United States’ sanctions, which could have backfired on them,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

02 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Optim-ISM

FT’s daily newsletter on the world of investment: John Authers quotes Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, on how strong manufacturing numbers imply a more aggressive Fed. 

25 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

China’s state-owned business reform a step in the wrong direction

“Mixed ownership will do little to change Unicom’s behaviour,” analysts at TS Lombard noted of China’s second-largest telecom wireless company. “On the contrary, it is the latest sign of the Chinese Communist party extending its influence over China’s private sector. SOE reforms suck resources from the private sector.” Moreover, the heavy hand of Beijing — and its obsession with control — is undermining solid economic performance as well as threatening financial stability.

17 Sep 2017 - CNBC

South Africa economy bruised but not broken amid political turmoil and downgrade

With inflation on its way down, Jon Harrison, managing director and head of emerging market macro strategy at London-based TS Lombard, says that "Political tensions remain a powerful driver of investor sentiment. We are relatively more positive on the local debt markets than on equities."

14 Sep 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Zapad symbolizes return to cold war style standoff: Trusted...

Christopher Granville, MD of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, takes a look at the geopolitical tension rising between Russia and the Baltic states.

11 Sep 2017 - MarketWatch

10-year Treasury yield climb most in 7 weeks as hurricane, North Korea fears ease

“There is no way the Fed is going to raise policy rates to flatten or invert the curve. This is one reason why, we believe, the Fed pulled forward the timing of its balance sheet reduction from December to September. In doing so, the Fed hopes that some increase in 10-year real yields will create the space for it to continue to raise the funds rate,” wrote analysts at TS Lombard led by Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz, in a Saturday research note.

11 Sep 2017 - CNBC

S&P 500 rallies to record close as Irma concerns decline; Dow jumps more than 250 points

"The [Trump] administration faces a battle to win UN Security Council approval of its call for an oil embargo and a partial naval blockade of the country," said Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. "Russia is hostile, calling new sanctions 'premature.' China's foreign minister has suggested it agrees more measures are needed but sources in Beijing say the leadership still opposes cutting off oil supplies."

10 Sep 2017 - Middle East Eye

Investor love affair with Turkey may end in tears

Investors are flocking to Turkey's rapidly growing economy, but some experts say it may not last.

07 Sep 2017 - CNBC

In 2017, Italy has made ‘significant progress’ in banking system...

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, takes a look at the performance of European banks as of late, with added comment on Italy and bond markets.

07 Sep 2017 - The Telegraph

Frankfurt wins post-Brexit prize to become EU financial centre, much to the horror of France

Frankfurt is sweeping aside rivals to become the dominant financial centre of the European Union after Brexit, a triumph that threatens to entrench German hegemony and profoundly upset the EU's internal balance of power.

07 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

Draghi faces another test to taper without tantrums

Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard, a research firm, said: Inflation is still rather low, so the ECB needs to make clear that the hurdle to embark on interest rate rises is much higher than the hurdle to tapering.

06 Sep 2017 - CNBC

Stocks close higher after Trump signals support for 3-month debt limit extension

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi "seem committed to tightening, both quantitatively and via interest rates, but monetary conditions will remain fairly stimulative so long as inflation does not become a problem," said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, in a note to clients.

06 Sep 2017 - Fortune

Germany Tells the ECB It’s Time to Start Raising Interest Rates

With the Federal Reserve having stopped its purchases and raised interest rates, global markets are now depending only on the ECB and Bank of Japan for continuing support. Both of those central banks are reluctant to exit such "unconventional" policy measures while inflation is still running below target. Charles Dumas, an analyst with TS Lombard in London, said in a note Wednesday that "serious concerns could be even further off" for the ECB than they are for the Fed, whose top officials are now expressing reservations about any further interest rate hikes in the U.S. this year.

01 Sep 2017 - Investment & Pensions Europe

EM debt: Experts clash over debt dynamics

Opinions differ sharply on the sustainability of emerging market debt. Industry expert, Lawrence Brainard, chief emerging markets economist, says the quality of debt has increased and assets have risen faster than debt.

01 Sep 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Expect Stronger Wage Growth Next Year: TS Lombard’s Blitz

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on jobs numbers and wages

31 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Manufacturing ‘unexpectedly strong’ in China

Strong Chinese factory PMI data has a "political context" as the Communist Party gets ready for its party conference in the fall, Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, said.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

The European periphery is back from the brink. Where should you invest?

Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece have come a long way since the 2008 financial crisis. They are now often cited as examples of where painful reforms led to economic growth. Given their turnaround, CNBC asked economists and market strategists which of these countries is the best option for investments.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Euro zone countries could be in danger if euro continues to rise, economist says

Countries like Portugal and Spain owe much of their recovery to exports. In Spain alone, exports have been higher than those of Germany, France and Italy (the biggest EU economies) since last year, according to data collected by TS Lombard.

28 Aug 2017 - Citywire Asia

China's debt engine runs at slow pace

‘Households have taken up the slack and become the major driver of credit growth,’ said Michelle Lam, senior economist at TS Lombard. The Chinese economic condition has proved resilient due to reflation and strong external demand, ‘but the mini-cycle has peaked, as property tightening takes its toll, Beijing’s resolve to press ahead with deleveraging will be tested’.

25 Aug 2017 - The Epoch Times

The State of the Global Economy

The US and global economies are doing fine, but not everything is as good as it looks.

25 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi's Drama-Free Jackson Hole Message Reaffirms Slow QE Exit

“As always seemed likely, this is no 2014 repeat -- we have to wait another fortnight for the Governing Council to hammer out an agreement on the next steps,” said Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “No expression of concern about currency strength is a green light for the euro to move higher, irrespective of the agenda for the event.”

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

No fireworks from Draghi in the immediate future

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, reacts to a speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Medium term trend of euro appreciation

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, weighs in on the euro zone economy.

22 Aug 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The "smart money" bets on the euro

Andrea Cicione, Head of Macro Strategy, assesses the situation of European Central Bank and the expected monetary policy normalization which suggest a risk that the euro will go through a consolidation phase.

17 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Leery of Ending Stimulus, Worried It Will Buoy Euro

Though the minutes signaled a central bank that was moving slowly, it was clear that at some point policy would change says Ken Wattret.

16 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Eurozone Growth Spreads, Helped by Dutch, Italian Economies

The Italian economy, which admittedly is still one of the weakest, is finally showing signs of life says Shweta Singh

15 Aug 2017 - CGTN

Wall Street's winning streak: Stocks surge and hit record highs

2017 have seen surging U.S. stocks, with a marked number of record highs for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But what's behind the increase? A tweeting President or company performance? 

14 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Trump aides seek to placate China ahead of trade move

China likely to exercise some restraint in the short term in the face of Mr Trump’s trade move, with Beijing inclined to wait to see the results of any investigation - says Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist

14 Aug 2017 - Reuters

Trump orders probe of China's intellectual property practices

Jonathan Fenby says China is not interested in a short-term trade fix with the United States and will resist "attempts to tie it down."

13 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Mario Draghi faces easing dilemma as strong euro sparks concern

Even without QE, monetary policy is going to remain extremely accommodative for a long time - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

13 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi Unfazed About the Strength of the Euro

Current market moves are reminiscent of those observed in the run-up to QE. The euro tumbled in the second half of 2014 in anticipation of large-scale bond buying, only to stabilize and even strengthen once the central bank started the program. - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

12 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Russia’s recovering economy fears US sanctions chill

Christopher Granville, MD EMEA research comments on the rising investment threatened by uncertainty over measures approved by Donald Trump

11 Aug 2017 - The Monocle

China and North Korea

China experts Jonathan Fenby discuss whether Beijing can solve the crisis on the Korean peninsula.

11 Aug 2017 - The Street

There Could Be a Powerful Force About to Rip Through the Stock Market That Rattles Nerves

"Markets go up and down, the "trend" can push valuations too far in one direction or the other and, when they do, sharp corrections ensue," TS Lombard managing director Steven Blitz said of Friday's swift downdraft in the tech space. "Tech is just another of many sectors, albeit a high profile one because of the names in the sector, subject to the fear and greed of market participants. In other words, Friday's downswing is probably nothing more meaningful than a re-balancing of market sentiment."

09 Aug 2017 - The Spectator

Fire and Fury: Could this war of words turn ugly?

Jonathan Fenby comments on the tensions between North Korea and US on The Spectator Podcast.

08 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Beijing’s chicanery leaves western business guessing

Jonathan Fenby traces the crackdown back to the dramatic abduction of Xiao Jianhua, head of the Tomorrow Group investment company, during the Chinese new year.

07 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow notches 9th straight record close

 "There is still juice left for equity investors," says Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy

07 Aug 2017 - MarketWatch

Dollar struggles to extend post-jobs-report glow

Recent euro strength has prompted some investors to question whether the European Central Bank’s tapering intentions could be curtailed. This is understandable given the scale and speed of the euro’s appreciation (though we have long been flagging the likelihood of both), says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe economist at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Amazon economy helps explain paradoxes facing investors

John Authers quotes Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on the impact of ecommerce

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Wall St weighs in on US jobs, wages

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, says while the improvement in wages was rooted in low wage jobs that is unlikely to prompt the Fed to stray from the plans.

04 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the July Employment Report: ‘A Banner Jobs Report’

“The great deceleration in hiring that began at the beginning of 2015 and ran through 2016 is now done with, with monthly private sector job gains settling in at an average of 180,000. Looking through the numbers we see much of the resurgence is in low wage jobs. Some 45% of the July increase was in health care and restaurants. And with that, aggregate wage growth slows.” - Steve Blitz, TS Lombard

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

China doesn't do bilateral diplomacy

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, discusses the Trump administration's attitude towards the Middle Kingdom.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Asian leaders see Trump as a 'very weak' president

"The evaluation of Trump, which certainly I get from a lot of Asians and speaking to Chinese people, is that actually they see Trump as a very weak President," Jonathan Fenby, China Chairman at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Macron actually getting things done

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, says that French President Emmanuel Macron has "got to deliver at home in order to show the Germans that he's serious."

01 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone economy grows at fastest pace since debt crisis

“Growth has not been concentrated in the traditional hotspots and economies that have traditionally not done so well are also joining in the recovery” says Ken Wattret, Managing Director of Global Macroeconomics at TS Lombard.

01 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow approaches 22,000, closes at a record high

"Figures on employment and capital spending over the coming month will give us a better sense of what second-quarter profits really mean - beyond whether they beat Wall Street estimates, a dubious distinction at best," Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard,

26 Jul 2017 - Citywire

Ambitious 'J-nomics' will take time to deliver: analysts

‘It’s a very ambitious plan and president Moon doesn’t have a majority [in the parliament] so as with the supplementary budget, which took some time for him to pass, implementation won’t be smooth sailing,’ Konstantinos Venetis, Senior Economist at TS Lombard told Citywire Asia.

26 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Stocks are ignoring U.S. political uncertainty, but the dollar isn’t

“After six months of Trump, stocks are being made great again, but Russiagate is weighing on the dollar and yields,” wrote Oliver Brennan, Senior Macro Strategist at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Gold settles lower, ending 6-session streak of gains

The committee’s Wednesday communication is not expected to convey new policy directives but it may relay a shift in how current economic data fit into the Fed’s view of the world,” said Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. economist and Managing Director of Global Macro investing, at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Zloty at risk of lingering political angst, say analysts

Poland’s economic fundamentals remained strong but the reactions of rating agencies this autumn to any further changes to the country’s institutions “will be worth watching”.

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Uberfication

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that the shifts involved in the rise of the sharing economy could be more important. The rise of the sharing economy is not just about hip millennials; it is also linked to despair in the Rust Belt, and it will complicate the job of monetary policy well into the future.

20 Jul 2017 - The Epoch Times

The ‘Silk Road’ Verdict

Why China's massive infrastructure plan won't measure up to economic reality. While a new airport or railway can be built in just a few years, amassing the human and institutional capital needed for them to operate efficiently and contribute to economic and social progress is a slower process,

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

U.S. labor market strengthening; mid-Atlantic manufacturing slows

Barring a collapse in general confidence, capital spending plans should start turning into actual expenditure in the coming months," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB expected to dial back on hawkish Sintra comments

ECB president Mario Draghi is expected to dial back on his hawkish comments from Sintra, says Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB sends a dovish message but markets don't buy it

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, agreed that the tapering could be expected at an average pace of $10 billion per meeting, which would enable its completion in the third quarter of next year.

20 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Strong Eurozone Growth Shows Payoff of ECB Stimulus

Data to be released over the coming weeks - including second-quarter growth figures on Aug. 16 - are likely to be “remarkable,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London. “The news flow will be a strong reinforcement of the case that something needs to be done” by the ECB, Mr. Wattret said.

19 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

‘Cold feet’: Euro dips from 14-month high ahead of ECB meeting

Draghi knows he will be deluged with questions about his references to ‘reflation’, what motivated them and what they imply for policy so he should be well prepared. Still, we do not expect to hear anything in the statement or the Q&A which fundamentally challenges the view that a tapering announcement is drawing near.

14 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Consumers aren’t spending, and surging rent might be to blame

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist for TS Lombard, shows that as of early 2017, wage income as a share of rent is at an all-time high. 

12 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

Lombard's Blitz Sees Fed Chasing Labor Market Fantasy

TS Lombard's Chief US Economist Steve Blitz weighs inon Fed policy. He speaks on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

10 Jul 2017 - Pulse News

Bank of Japan staying the lonely course

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: Like other major central banks, the BoJ has recently bumped up its growth forecasts and lowered its inflation estimates for this year and next. But while his peers at the Fed and (slowly but surely) the ECB have embarked on the path of policy normalisation, Governor Kuroda is nowhere near that point. 

08 Jul 2017 - Reuters

As Qatar row smolders, world markets tot up dependence on Gulf petrodollars

"One should expect Gulf governments to sell liquid assets when they have to. I am sure the Qataris will be moving some of their less liquid assets into more liquid ones as a form of insurance, i.e. real estate into equities," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East economist at consultancy TS Lombard.

07 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

No bad news in the Trump June jobs report

“June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Reuters

U.S. job growth accelerates in June, wages continue to lag

"Wage inflation was never going to be a 2017 event. You get paid this year based on how your firm did last year and last year was a slow year for GDP and, more importantly, earnings," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. "Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries to push up the averages."

07 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

U.S. adds 222,000 jobs in June hiring surge

Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries, wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the June Jobs Report: ‘Doing Well Enough’

"June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard.

06 Jul 2017

ECB Considered Dropping a QE Guarantee at June Meeting

Minutes indicate central bank policy makers’ increasing confidence in the eurozone economy: "It’s evolution, not revolution, but the direction of travel is clear,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

27 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

The Draghi Effect: Reflation focus boosts the euro, hits bonds

Analyst Ken Wattret at TS Lombard said: The comments look a bit more balanced than the market reaction would suggest, with the core inflation criteria not yet achieved. Still, use of the term ‘reflationary’ has probably captured the markets’ attention and rightly shaken out some of the complacency.

26 Jun 2017 - CNBC

This is why the ECB purchases corporate bonds

These 'non-standard policies' have helped reduce sovereign and credit risk, curtail funding fragmentation, improve liquidity and increase asset prices. One of the most powerful channels through which QE has worked is a weaker currency, which has boosted the competitiveness of the euro zone," Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC

21 Jun 2017 - The Telegraph

China stocks go mainstream with long-awaited entry into MSCI indices

Michelle Lam, a Hong Kong-based senior economist for TS Lombard, said for now the decision represented more of a "stick and carrot process" for China, which is growing at at least 5pc a year. "It's not going to be a game changer in the near term," she said, reiterating that the 'carrot' in this instance is more inclusion if China follows through with reforms and changes.

21 Jun 2017 - Citywire

Household debt raises risks for Aussie banks

‘In Australia, it hasn’t been a rosy picture since the mining boom went bust. Wages are growing at a slow pace and consumption is being funded increasingly through savings. So the buffer consumers have to finance their mortgages is much, much smaller,’ Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard said in an interview.

19 Jun 2017 - Newsweek

Putin could 'crack' NATO under Trump

Russia is already drawing a wedge between America and its closest NATO allies in other ways. Germany and the European Union have been disturbed by new congressional sanctions against Russia for interfering in the 2016 election, according to Jonathan Fenby, managing director of European political research at the investment research firm TS Lombard. Russian energy companies building the Nord Stream 2 gas export pipeline to Europe, however, are targeted in the new sanctions bill. This is “the latest of a series of developments that augur ill for trans-Atlantic relations,” wrote Fenby in a research letter to investors Sunday. “Germany and Austria, whose companies are investing in the pipeline, criticized the Senate vote for adding a ‘new and very negative quality in European-American relations.’” Fenby said. The new sanctions are just “another brick in the wall of European reaction to Trump’s criticism of European defence spending,” Fenby wrote.

16 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: another clash

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that Janet Yellen of the Fed is chasing a “great white whale” in fighting inflation, when there is little evidence that it exists. He points out that inflation tends to follow increases in real spending, which at present seems to be flat. 

16 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Market is Underestimating Potential ECB Tightening

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the Fed’s May interest rate rise and Europe’s improving economy, with more construction spending in Germany. When it comes to Britain’s exit from the European Union, he tells Daybreak Europe’s Caroline Hepker and Markus Karlsson he is skeptical about the stance of U.K. negotiators who seem to think they can dictate the terms of Brexit.

14 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Russian shares near 1-year low on US sanctions risk, oil, rouble

"The latest oil price action is ominous for Russian equities and the rouble's de-coupling from oil compounds the blow for Russian oil stocks," Christopher Granville at TS Lombard wrote, predicting the pace of Russian rate cuts to slow to 25 bps. Rouble strength means investors should be overweight on retail-oriented domestic stocks while selling export-oriented ones, especially those in oil and gas.

12 Jun 2017 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Tough change of course

The ECB will be confronted with increasing technical problems and shortcomings. Shweta Singh from TS Lombard points to the declining supply of securities still obtainable under the existing rules. This is mainly the case with federal bonds, since Germany does not make any new debts. The extent to which the euro system has reached the maximum share of debt issued by a state can not be determined exactly. Singh, however, like Picard's Frederik Ducrozet, is convinced that the Euro system will not be able to continue its purchases without changing the rules for a long time.

09 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Wall St higher as investors shrug off UK election impact

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard in New York, said: "The UK election is a UK event and there is no direct economic impact from that on the U.S. economy. Investors are more concerned about Trump and the perception of what he can and can't get passed legislatively in regards to tax reform. The last thing the Republicans want to do is head to the mid-term election in 2018 without any major legislative accomplishments."

08 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

ECB Doesn’t have Credibility But Buying Power

What the ECB lacks in credibility it makes up for in tremendous buying power, says Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. He also told Daybreak Europe’s Anna Edwards and Guy Johson that he is not surprised that the BOJ is looking to exit its monetary policy.

08 Jun 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Drops Reference to Future Interest-Rate Cut

The size of the ECB’s stimulus “looks increasingly out of line with the economic backdrop,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

05 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone recovery becomes surprise economic story of 2017

Economists say the fall in May’s inflation rate to 1.4 per cent, from 1.9 per cent in April, removed any immediate pressure on the ECB to act. Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard said: “The traditional relationships between growth and inflation seems to have broken down. I can imagine the ECB sounding a little more confident on growth... but on the inflation side they will sound pretty cautious.”

02 Jun 2017 - Pulse News

OPEC back to square one

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: The oil market has come under strain over the last few weeks, with selling pressure intensifying in May amid a spike in volatility. Earlier this month crude prices dropped to the bottom of their six-month range, erasing virtually all the gains recorded since OPEC’s Vienna deal, before stabilising around $50. What is the broader macro message from this price action? Why now? And what comes next? 

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