Marcus Chenevix

Marcus Chenevix

Analyst, Middle East and the Energy Transformation

Marcus Chenevix joined TS Lombard in 2016. He is a fluent Arabic speaker who has previously studied and worked in Oman and Egypt.

Marcus writes on Middle Eastern markets, focussing on the GCC and Turkey, he also writes on regional political issues for the Global Political Drivers service. He has previously worked for the United Nations Refugee Agency in Egypt and has a degree in Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Cambridge, where he specialised in the study of political Islam. Marcus has a master's in Arab Studies from Georgetown, where he specialized in development issues in the Arab World.

Marcus Chenevix contributes to the EM Watch, EMEA and Global Political Drivers publications.

EM Watch: Analysis of EM sentiment drivers and fundamental or policy country developments on 10 emerging countries. (Every Monday)
EMEA: Focus on how politics affects fiscal policy and debt fundamentals in the largest EMEA markets. (1 note per month)
Global Political Drivers: Detailed analysis of geo-political themes that drive global risk appetite among investors. (Fortnightly on Thursdays)

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Marcus Chenevix's top market calls

May 2020 - Middle East

Covid-19 in MENA: Temporary Anaesthetic

We said: The Arab World will handle the covid-19 pandemic well; both economically and epidemiologically. Beyond the immediate crisis though, the region will struggle to remain solvent through the recovery period.
Outcome: The majority of Arab States handled the pandemic very well, with few casualties and rapid vaccine rollouts. Insolvency crisis began to gather pace in late 2020, with economic collapse in Lebanon. Regional bond yields have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

- Middle East

Storm Warning for MENA Sovereign Debt

We said: Red flag going up for MENA sovereign debt. Get out of the higher yield bonds, particularly Oman, flee to “blue chip” MENA sovereign credit. Why? Post-2011 political order much more insecure than it appears, so much so that new revenue raising will be impossible and costs will continue to rise.
Outcome: Lebanon defaulted in March 2020, Oman was the worst performer in the region in 2020. Peripheral MENA sovereigns have generally performed poorly relative to blue-chip sovereigns.

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