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Madina Khrustaleva
Analyst, Russia & FSU Research
Madina was educated at the Urals State Technical University in Yekaterinburg, where she majored in economics and management (focused on mining and manufacturing). She moved to Moscow for graduate studies in finance at the Higher School of Economics, where, before joining TS Lombard, she went on to become a lecturer in financial management. Madina also has experience in the Investments and Strategic Development Department in a major listed Russian steel group and in business journalism for a regional television network in the Urals.
Since joining TS Lombard in 2015, Madina has been producing analysis on the full range of top-down risks and opportunities for financial investment portfolios including Russian and other FSU assets (with a focus on Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Georgia).Madina Khrustaleva contributes to the EM Watch and Russia publications.
EM Watch: Analysis of EM sentiment drivers and fundamental or policy country developments on 10 emerging countries. (Every Monday)
Russia: Market relevant analysis of the domestic political economy and geopolitical developments. (1 note per month)
Madina Khrustaleva's Top Market Calls
Long Russian local debt
We said: Benign inflation and a stable ruble favour local debt, upcoming rate cuts should drive bond yields lower. The relatively high oil price should continue to boost investor sentiment while the system of FX interventions under the fiscal rule reduce the volatility of the ruble. Headline inflation has stabilised in recent months and core inflation trends remain downward. Breakeven inflation has fallen further over the past month. We expect the CBR to deliver two 25bp rate cuts before the end of the year underpinning our favourable view of local debt.
Outcome: CBR cut rates by 25bp on 14 June, 26 July and 6 September. We closed the trade on 23 September for a gain of 9%. 7% of the return was generated from the 85bp fall in yield, with a 2% contribution from the currency.
