Latest Research

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Economics

18 Aug 2017

ECB's taper two-step

  • Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech not going to be a game changer like 2014 
  • Two-step tapering announcement looking more likely 
  • Modalities matter most to markets: Fed-style method remains our assumption 
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10 Aug 2017

The next crash

The 2008 crisis was deadly because it centred on housing and global banking. The financial system is less vulnerble today. While another crash isn't imminent, elevated asset prices provide the main threat. For the macro economy, this probably resemble dotcom rather than subprime. But watch for amplification risks.

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08 Aug 2017

The global economy in six charts

  • The global economy remains reflationary, thanks to an industrial revival 
  • But lack of wage inflation reduces risk of aggressive monetary tightening 
  • Structural forces, notably new technologies, should extend the business cycle 
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07 Aug 2017

Markets ignore Trump, problems don’t

  • Economics: Low-wage recovery, high-wage losses seen in trade 
  • Markets: Strong Q2 supports bullish case  
  • Politics: Calm before the…
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04 Aug 2017

BoE on hold as the economy hits soft patch

  • The economy is going through a soft patch as Brexit uncertainty grows
  • The BoE is in no hurry to hike interest rates
  • The process of Brexit is the main risk facing the economy; politics will dictate the pace of tightening
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Politics

17 Aug 2017

North Korea and markets: More of the same – with a twist

The twist to watch for is how “America First” plays out. A pre-emptive US strike on North Korea would entail no less of a US retreat – in fact a calamitous one – than the alternative of pursuing in practice , even while publicly rejecting, the option of M.A.D.-based deterrence.

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03 Aug 2017

India: Competition with China enters new phase

A confrontation between Chinese and Indian troops on the remote Doklam plateau has brought long simmering tensions to the surface. Below we examine the roots of this crisis, and its likely consequences.

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03 Aug 2017

Brazil: The cost of Temer’s victory

As expected, embattled President Michel Temer won an easy victory in the Lower House on the first criminal charge against him, with a decisive 263-227 vote on 2 August to shelve the investigation until after he leaves office. But more obstacles lie ahead.

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02 Aug 2017

China: Korea circle grows more vicious

  • Donald Trump’s approach to North Korea is widening the gap between the US and China
  • As the president becomes more isolated, choices narrow
  • Xi Jinping is playing a broader power game
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28 Jul 2017

Russia: US sanctions – a contrarian case

Already discounted in Russian asset valuations, this week’s enactment by the US Congress of new sanctions against Russia might appear to herald another downward spiral in the geopolitical confrontation with Russia. This note considers the opposite view.

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Markets

16 Aug 2017

The case for a stronger dollar

  • US data starting to improve and Fed officials talking up another rate hike 
  • Market positioned for further USD falls despite short-term positives 
  • We add a long USD/CHF position and take profit on our EUR/SEK put spread
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09 Aug 2017

Playing with fire (and fury)

  • Trump ‘fire and fury’ comments unleash vicious risk-off phase: will it last? 
  • Macro and corporate fundamentals remain good, as Q2 earnings show 
  • Absent an actual military escalation, the cycle should not be derailed 
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02 Aug 2017

Forget US sanctions: Russia is a buy

  • Weak USD helping EM assets, stocks buoyed by more balanced Chinese growth 
  • We add long Russian equity and rouble exposures via RTSI$ futures 
  • We trail the stop on EUR/CHF further to 1.13, extend target to 1.17 
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01 Aug 2017

EM Strategy Monthly - August 2017

More balanced growth in China is a major positive for global EMs

  • Asset class – We raise equities to strong positive.
  • Russia – Bad news is priced in; we raise equities to positive.
  • India – We cut equities to moderate positive on high valuations.
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01 Aug 2017

Strategy Chartbook - August 2017

The dollar index is sitting on key support levels and seems on the verge of a break lower. Valuations certainly support further dollar weakness, as the euro, pound and yen remain on a recovery path from historical undervaluation. However, some of the apparent cyclical cheapness in GBP may have actually become structural as a result of Brexit. 

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27 Jul 2017

Target reached: long EUR/CHF

  • We bought EUR/CHF at 1.09 with a target of 1.12 
  • Monetary policy diversification trade still in place 
  • We retain the trade with higher s/l and t/p levels 
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26 Jul 2017

Weak dollar, strong growth, risk rally

  •  The dollar this year is surrendering its 2014-16 gains 
  • As global growth remains resilient, dollar weakness continues to support global stocks 
  • Portfolio: we raise our target and stop-loss on EEM equity ETF trade 
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TRACK RECORD

Track Record

We have a 28 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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MEDIA

Press

To request an interview with a member of our team, please get in touch zdl@tslombard.com

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